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GISELA - GIS-based evaluation of land use and agriculture market analysis under global warming

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  • Mori, Shunsuke
  • Kato, Masahiro
  • Ido, Takahumi

Abstract

One of the important future issues is how agriculture production can meet the future demand increase due to the population and the income growth. Global warming would give both positive and negative impacts on them. Agriculture is often expected to supply biofuels to meet the growing transportation energy demand and the warming control policy. GISELA - GIS-based evaluation for land use and agriculture production model - is developed to evaluate the current and the potential cropland for rice, wheat, maize and soy-beans production under climate changes. We also assess the food and the feed demand based on the historical regional statistics for world into 18 regions. Finally, we assess the future food market integrating the above supply and demand conditions developing a dynamic optimization model, GISELA. Current GISELA findings are as follows: (1) potential cropland in south America will be extensively cultivated, (2) market price of wheat and soy will gradually go up while that of maize is almost stable in medium yield case, and (3) in the low-yield case, all crop prices hike rapidly in the mid of this century.

Suggested Citation

  • Mori, Shunsuke & Kato, Masahiro & Ido, Takahumi, 2010. "GISELA - GIS-based evaluation of land use and agriculture market analysis under global warming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 236-242, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:87:y:2010:i:1:p:236-242
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    1. Mitchell,Donald O. & Ingco,Merlinda D. & Duncan,Ronald C., 1997. "The World Food Outlook," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521580106.
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    1. Alireza Koocheki & Reza Ghorbani & Farzad Mondani & Yaser Alizade, 2011. "Pulses Production Systems in Term of Energy Use Efficiency and Economical Analysis in Iran," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 95-106.
    2. Mori, Shunsuke, 2012. "An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 421-428.
    3. Ghorbani, Reza & Mondani, Farzad & Amirmoradi, Shahram & Feizi, Hassan & Khorramdel, Surror & Teimouri, Mozhgan & Sanjani, Sara & Anvarkhah, Sepideh & Aghel, Hassan, 2011. "A case study of energy use and economical analysis of irrigated and dryland wheat production systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 283-288, January.

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