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Forecasting total natural-gas consumption in Spain by using the stochastic Gompertz innovation diffusion model

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  • Gutiérrez, R.
  • Nafidi, A.
  • Gutiérrez Sánchez, R.

Abstract

The principal objective of the present study is to examine the possibilities of using a Gompertz-type innovation diffusion process as a stochastic growth model of natural-gas consumption in Spain, and to compare our results with those obtained, on the one hand, by stochastic logistic innovation modelling and, on the other, by using a stochastic lognormal growth model based on a non-innovation diffusion process. Such a comparison is carried out taking into account the macroeconomic characteristics and natural-gas consumption patterns in Spain, both of which reflect the current expansive situation characterizing the Spanish economy. From the technical standpoint a contribution is also made to the theory of the stochastic Gompertz Innovation diffusion process (SGIDP), as applied to the case in question.

Suggested Citation

  • Gutiérrez, R. & Nafidi, A. & Gutiérrez Sánchez, R., 2005. "Forecasting total natural-gas consumption in Spain by using the stochastic Gompertz innovation diffusion model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 115-124, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:80:y:2005:i:2:p:115-124
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    References listed on IDEAS

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