The trend of the total stock of the private car-petrol in Spain: Stochastic modelling using a new gamma diffusion process
The main aim of this study is to model the trend of the evolution of the total stock of private petrol-driven cars. In Spain, as in other EU countries, this trend between 2000 and 2005 differed significantly from that observed from 1986 to 1999. Moreover, it varies greatly from that corresponding to the stock of diesel-driven cars, which consistently presents an exponential Gompertz-type increase. Spain constitutes a typical example of a failure to observe the maximum CO2 emission levels assigned to it by 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol (1992); a significant percentage of these excess emissions is accounted for by the land transport sector, in general, and by the private cars subsector, in particular. This paper proposes a stochastic model based on a new non homogeneous stochastic gamma-type diffusion process which it is a stochastic version of a Gamma function type deterministic growth model considered in Skiadas . We describe its main probabilistic characteristics and establish a statistical methodology by which it can be fitted to real data and obtain medium-term forecasts that, in statistical terms, are quite accurate.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 86 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/bibliographic|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 297-316, July.
- Gutiérrez, R. & Gutiérrez-Sánchez, R. & Nafidi, A., 2006. "Electricity consumption in Morocco: Stochastic Gompertz diffusion analysis with exogenous factors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(10), pages 1139-1151, October.
- Arapis, Manuel & Gao, Jiti, 2004.
"Empirical comparisons in short-term interest rate models using nonparametric methods,"
11974, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Dec 2005.
- Manuel Arapis & Jiti Gao, 2006. "Empirical Comparisons in Short-Term Interest Rate Models Using Nonparametric Methods," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(2), pages 310-345.
- Gutiérrez, R. & Nafidi, A. & Gutiérrez Sánchez, R., 2005. "Forecasting total natural-gas consumption in Spain by using the stochastic Gompertz innovation diffusion model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 115-124, February.
- Ramón Gutiérrez & Patrica Román & Francisco Torres, 2001. "Inference on some parametric functions in the univeriate lognormal diffusion process with exogenous factors," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 10(2), pages 357-373, December.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-form Approximation Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 223-262, January.
- Chan, K C, et al, 1992.
" An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate CKLS(1992) estimation of interest rate models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00035, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 335-38, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:86:y:2009:i:1:p:18-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.