IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v401y2025ipas0306261925013947.html

Assessing the potential of forecast-based optimization in renewable energy communities with flexible electricity, heat and mobility resources

Author

Listed:
  • Frieß, Nathalie
  • Pferschy, Ulrich
  • Raese, David
  • Schauer, Joachim

Abstract

Renewable Energy Communities (RECs) allow members to share self-produced renewable electricity with other consumers via the public grid. In this way, RECs can effectuate a more efficient local electricity use and reduce the load on the higher-level grid. However, to unlock this potential, intelligent control systems must be established to coordinate operational decisions within communities with foresight. The central inputs for such systems are forecasts, which inevitably contain errors. Thus, it is crucial to gain a better understanding of their effects on forecast-based optimization.

Suggested Citation

  • Frieß, Nathalie & Pferschy, Ulrich & Raese, David & Schauer, Joachim, 2025. "Assessing the potential of forecast-based optimization in renewable energy communities with flexible electricity, heat and mobility resources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 401(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:401:y:2025:i:pa:s0306261925013947
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126664
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261925013947
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126664?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. El Geneidy, Rami & Howard, Bianca, 2020. "Contracted energy flexibility characteristics of communities: Analysis of a control strategy for demand response," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    2. Jiao, Zihao & Ran, Lun & Zhang, Yanzi & Ren, Yaping, 2021. "Robust vehicle-to-grid power dispatching operations amid sociotechnical complexities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    3. Luthander, Rasmus & Widén, Joakim & Nilsson, Daniel & Palm, Jenny, 2015. "Photovoltaic self-consumption in buildings: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 80-94.
    4. Nimalsiri, Nanduni I. & Ratnam, Elizabeth L. & Mediwaththe, Chathurika P. & Smith, David B. & Halgamuge, Saman K., 2021. "Coordinated charging and discharging control of electric vehicles to manage supply voltages in distribution networks: Assessing the customer benefit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    5. Felice, Alex & Rakocevic, Lucija & Peeters, Leen & Messagie, Maarten & Coosemans, Thierry & Ramirez Camargo, Luis, 2022. "Renewable energy communities: Do they have a business case in Flanders?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    6. Sirviö, Katja & Motta, Sergio & Rauma, Kalle & Evens, Corentin, 2024. "Multi-level functional analysis of developing prosumers and energy communities with value creation framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    7. Johannes Prior & Tobias Drees & Michael Miro & Bernd Kuhlenkötter, 2024. "Systematic Literature Review of Heuristic-Optimized Microgrids and Energy-Flexible Factories," Clean Technol., MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-28, August.
    8. Vykhodtsev, Anton V. & Jang, Darren & Wang, Qianpu & Rosehart, William & Zareipour, Hamidreza, 2022. "A review of modelling approaches to characterize lithium-ion battery energy storage systems in techno-economic analyses of power systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    9. Casalicchio, Valeria & Manzolini, Giampaolo & Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Moser, David, 2022. "From investment optimization to fair benefit distribution in renewable energy community modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    10. Fahad R. Albogamy & Ghulam Hafeez & Imran Khan & Sheraz Khan & Hend I. Alkhammash & Faheem Ali & Gul Rukh, 2021. "Efficient Energy Optimization Day-Ahead Energy Forecasting in Smart Grid Considering Demand Response and Microgrids," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-29, October.
    11. Nor Liza Tumeran & Siti Hajar Yusoff & Teddy Surya Gunawan & Mohd Shahrin Abu Hanifah & Suriza Ahmad Zabidi & Bernardi Pranggono & Muhammad Sharir Fathullah Mohd Yunus & Siti Nadiah Mohd Sapihie & Asm, 2023. "Model Predictive Control Based Energy Management System Literature Assessment for RES Integration," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-27, April.
    12. Aguilar, Diego & Quinones, Jhon J. & Pineda, Luis R. & Ostanek, Jason & Castillo, Luciano, 2024. "Optimal scheduling of renewable energy microgrids: A robust multi-objective approach with machine learning-based probabilistic forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    13. George-Williams, H. & Wade, N. & Carpenter, R.N., 2022. "A probabilistic framework for the techno-economic assessment of smart energy hubs for electric vehicle charging," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    14. Fumo, Nelson & Rafe Biswas, M.A., 2015. "Regression analysis for prediction of residential energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 332-343.
    15. Wen, Lulu & Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin & Lu, Xinhui, 2019. "Optimal load dispatch of community microgrid with deep learning based solar power and load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1053-1065.
    16. Cosic, Armin & Stadler, Michael & Mansoor, Muhammad & Zellinger, Michael, 2021. "Mixed-integer linear programming based optimization strategies for renewable energy communities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    17. Beckman, William A. & Broman, Lars & Fiksel, Alex & Klein, Sanford A. & Lindberg, Eva & Schuler, Mattias & Thornton, Jeff, 1994. "TRNSYS The most complete solar energy system modeling and simulation software," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 486-488.
    18. Carli, Raffaele & Dotoli, Mariagrazia & Jantzen, Jan & Kristensen, Michael & Ben Othman, Sarah, 2020. "Energy scheduling of a smart microgrid with shared photovoltaic panels and storage: The case of the Ballen marina in Samsø," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    19. Amasyali, Kadir & El-Gohary, Nora M., 2018. "A review of data-driven building energy consumption prediction studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1192-1205.
    20. Bloess, Andreas & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2018. "Power-to-heat for renewable energy integration: A review of technologies, modeling approaches, and flexibility potentials," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1611-1626.
    21. Nguyen, Thi Ngoc & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    22. Bharath Varsh Rao & Mark Stefan & Roman Schwalbe & Roman Karl & Friederich Kupzog & Martin Kozek, 2021. "Stratified Control Applied to a Three-Phase Unbalanced Low Voltage Distribution Grid in a Local Peer-to-Peer Energy Community," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-19, June.
    23. Ziad M. Ali & Martin Calasan & Shady H. E. Abdel Aleem & Francisco Jurado & Foad H. Gandoman, 2023. "Applications of Energy Storage Systems in Enhancing Energy Management and Access in Microgrids: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-41, August.
    24. Nigitz, Thomas & Gölles, Markus, 2019. "A generally applicable, simple and adaptive forecasting method for the short-term heat load of consumers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 73-81.
    25. Bernadette Fina & Miriam Schwebler & Carolin Monsberger, 2022. "Different Technologies’ Impacts on the Economic Viability, Energy Flows and Emissions of Energy Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, April.
    26. Zwickl-Bernhard, Sebastian & Auer, Hans, 2021. "Open-source modeling of a low-carbon urban neighborhood with high shares of local renewable generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    27. Li, Yanfei & O'Neill, Zheng & Zhang, Liang & Chen, Jianli & Im, Piljae & DeGraw, Jason, 2021. "Grey-box modeling and application for building energy simulations - A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    28. Hammarsten, Stig, 1987. "A critical appraisal of energy-signature models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 97-110.
    29. Houben, Nikolaus & Cosic, Armin & Stadler, Michael & Mansoor, Muhammad & Zellinger, Michael & Auer, Hans & Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2023. "Optimal dispatch of a multi-energy system microgrid under uncertainty: A renewable energy community in Austria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    30. Fischer, David & Madani, Hatef, 2017. "On heat pumps in smart grids: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 342-357.
    31. Gudmunds, D. & Nyholm, E. & Taljegard, M. & Odenberger, M., 2020. "Self-consumption and self-sufficiency for household solar producers when introducing an electric vehicle," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1200-1215.
    32. Yan, Laiqing & Deng, Xiwei & Li, Ji, 2024. "Integrated energy hub optimization in microgrids: Uncertainty-aware modeling and efficient operation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    33. Robin Sudhoff & Sebastian Schreck & Sebastian Thiem & Stefan Niessen, 2022. "Operating Renewable Energy Communities to Reduce Power Peaks in the Distribution Grid: An Analysis on Grid-Friendliness, Different Shares of Participants, and Economic Benefits," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-18, July.
    34. Gust, Gunther & Brandt, Tobias & Mashayekh, Salman & Heleno, Miguel & DeForest, Nicholas & Stadler, Michael & Neumann, Dirk, 2021. "Strategies for microgrid operation under real-world conditions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 292(1), pages 339-352.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pastore, Lorenzo Mario & Lo Basso, Gianluigi & Ricciardi, Guido & de Santoli, Livio, 2022. "Synergies between Power-to-Heat and Power-to-Gas in renewable energy communities," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 1383-1397.
    2. Langer, Lissy & Volling, Thomas, 2020. "An optimal home energy management system for modulating heat pumps and photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    3. van der Kam, Mart & Pena-Bello, Alejandro & Parra, David, 2025. "PV for what? A PV self-sufficiency analysis of electric vehicles, heat pumps, and home storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    4. Barone, G. & Buonomano, A. & Forzano, C. & Palombo, A. & Russo, G., 2023. "The role of energy communities in electricity grid balancing: A flexible tool for smart grid power distribution optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. Fath U Min Ullah & Noman Khan & Tanveer Hussain & Mi Young Lee & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Diving Deep into Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: Comparative Analysis and a Novel Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Shoaib Ahmed & Amjad Ali & Antonio D’Angola, 2024. "A Review of Renewable Energy Communities: Concepts, Scope, Progress, Challenges, and Recommendations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-34, February.
    7. Giulia Taromboli & Laura Campagna & Cristina Bergonzi & Filippo Bovera & Vincenzo Trovato & Marco Merlo & Giuliano Rancilio, 2025. "Renewable Energy Communities: Frameworks and Implementation of Regulatory, Technical, and Social Aspects Across EU Member States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-32, May.
    8. Pagnini, Luisa & Bracco, Stefano & Delfino, Federico & de-Simón-Martín, Miguel, 2024. "Levelized cost of electricity in renewable energy communities: Uncertainty propagation analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 366(C).
    9. Sandra Corasaniti & Paolo Coppa & Dario Atzori & Ateeq Ur Rehman, 2025. "Renewable Energy Communities (RECs): European and Worldwide Distribution, Different Technologies, Management, and Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-60, July.
    10. Shoaib Ahmed & Amjad Ali & Alessandro Ciocia & Antonio D’Angola, 2024. "Technological Elements behind the Renewable Energy Community: Current Status, Existing Gap, Necessity, and Future Perspective—Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-40, June.
    11. Manfren, Massimiliano & Nastasi, Benedetto & Groppi, Daniele & Astiaso Garcia, Davide, 2020. "Open data and energy analytics - An analysis of essential information for energy system planning, design and operation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    12. Wakui, Tetsuya & Sawada, Kento & Yokoyama, Ryohei & Aki, Hirohisa, 2019. "Predictive management for energy supply networks using photovoltaics, heat pumps, and battery by two-stage stochastic programming and rule-based control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1302-1319.
    13. Pastore, Lorenzo Mario & Lo Basso, Gianluigi & Ricciardi, Guido & de Santoli, Livio, 2023. "Smart energy systems for renewable energy communities: A comparative analysis of power-to-X strategies for improving energy self-consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    14. Zhang, Chengyu & Ma, Liangdong & Luo, Zhiwen & Han, Xing & Zhao, Tianyi, 2024. "Forecasting building plug load electricity consumption employing occupant-building interaction input features and bidirectional LSTM with improved swarm intelligent algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    15. Guo, Yurun & Wang, Shugang & Wang, Jihong & Zhang, Tengfei & Ma, Zhenjun & Jiang, Shuang, 2024. "Key district heating technologies for building energy flexibility: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    16. Zhang, Yuyang & Ma, Wenke & Du, Pengcheng & Li, Shaoting & Gao, Ke & Wang, Yuxuan & Liu, Yifei & Zhang, Bo & Yu, Dingyi & Zhang, Jingyi & Li, Yan, 2024. "Powering the future: Unraveling residential building characteristics for accurate prediction of total electricity consumption during summer heat," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PA).
    17. Ijaz Ul Haq & Amin Ullah & Samee Ullah Khan & Noman Khan & Mi Young Lee & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Sequential Learning-Based Energy Consumption Prediction Model for Residential and Commercial Sectors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, March.
    18. Mariuzzo, Ivan & Fina, Bernadette & Stroemer, Stefan & Corinaldesi, Carlo & Raugi, Marco, 2025. "Grid-friendly optimization of energy communities through enhanced multiple participation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    19. Stefan Arens & Sunke Schlüters & Benedikt Hanke & Karsten von Maydell & Carsten Agert, 2020. "Sustainable Residential Energy Supply: A Literature Review-Based Morphological Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-28, January.
    20. Chou, Jui-Sheng & Tran, Duc-Son, 2018. "Forecasting energy consumption time series using machine learning techniques based on usage patterns of residential householders," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 709-726.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:401:y:2025:i:pa:s0306261925013947. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.