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A critical reflection on modelling approaches for heat pumps and building envelope retrofits in local energy system optimisations

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  • Hermann, Julian
  • Kachirayil, Febin
  • Lohrmann, Alena
  • Scheller, Fabian
  • Roskosch, Dennis
  • McKenna, Russell

Abstract

Integrating heat pumps and adopting building envelope retrofit (BER) measures is vital for decarbonising the built environment. This paper systematically reviews modelling approaches for these technologies within 84 local energy system optimisation studies. Our findings show that most studies simplify heat pump operation using a constant coefficient of performance (COP), perfect modulation, or a fixed heating capacity. While existing methods account for temperature-dependent COPs, only a few studies include more advanced approaches considering additional impacts. Two main approaches for modelling BER measures are identified: pre-defined retrofit sets with exogenous heat demand or an integrated retrofit selection with endogenous heat demand. While the pre-defined approach offers lower computational effort, it limits the BER solution space. The integrated approach achieves the opposite: a wider solution space but higher complexity. Moreover, only two studies consider the impact of BER measures on the heat supply temperature, an essential link between retrofit measures and heat pump efficiency. Based on our qualitative review, we derive recommendations for energy system modellers. For modelling heat pumps, we recommend using a temperature-dependent COP and heating capacity, as well as a lower modulation limit. Regarding BER measures, the integrated approach should be used for smaller scales (single buildings) while the pre-defined sets are suitable for larger scales. Finally, we propose a research agenda to address limitations and gaps in the current modelling approaches, such as addressing the performance gap between existing COP estimations and heat pump field performance and including a more detailed method for the heat supply temperature.

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  • Hermann, Julian & Kachirayil, Febin & Lohrmann, Alena & Scheller, Fabian & Roskosch, Dennis & McKenna, Russell, 2025. "A critical reflection on modelling approaches for heat pumps and building envelope retrofits in local energy system optimisations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 400(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:400:y:2025:i:c:s0306261925012553
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126525
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