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How can renewable hydrogen compete with diesel in public transport? Robust design optimization of a hydrogen refueling station under techno-economic and environmental uncertainty

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  • Coppitters, Diederik
  • Verleysen, Kevin
  • De Paepe, Ward
  • Contino, Francesco

Abstract

Heavy-duty transport represents nearly 6% of the greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. Renewable hydrogen is a potential option to decarbonize heavy-duty transport, such as buses. Renewable hydrogen for buses promises excellent environmental performance, at the expense of a higher fuel cost, as opposed to a diesel-powered bus fleet. Despite the inherent uncertainty, feasibility studies in this framework generally assume deterministic techno-economic and environmental parameters, which can lead to a suboptimal performance that is sensitive to the random environment. To provide robust design alternatives, we applied robust design optimization on a wind- and solar-powered hydrogen refueling system and a hydrogen- and diesel-powered bus fleet, to optimize the Levelized Cost Of Driving (LCOD) and Carbon Intensity (CI), subject to technical, economic and environmental uncertainties. A fully diesel-powered bus fleet achieves the optimized LCOD mean of 1.24€/km, but it results in the worst LCOD standard deviation (0.11€/km), CI mean (1.33kg˙CO˙2,eq /km) and CI standard deviation (0.075kg˙CO˙2,eq /km) among the optimized designs. To reduce the LCOD standard deviation, CI mean and CI standard deviation, part of the diesel-powered bus fleet is converted into hydrogen-powered buses and the renewable-powered hydrogen refueling station is scaled accordingly. Converting 54% of the diesel-powered bus fleet into hydrogen-powered buses results in a decrease in LCOD standard deviation by 36%, a decrease in CI mean by 46% and a decrease in CI standard deviation by 51%, at the expense of an increase in LCOD mean by only 11%. Future work will focus on the integration of full-electric buses.

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  • Coppitters, Diederik & Verleysen, Kevin & De Paepe, Ward & Contino, Francesco, 2022. "How can renewable hydrogen compete with diesel in public transport? Robust design optimization of a hydrogen refueling station under techno-economic and environmental uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:312:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922001581
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118694
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    Cited by:

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    4. Zahir Barahmand & Marianne S. Eikeland, 2022. "Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Cost Analysis through the Lens of Uncertainty: A Scoping Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-22, September.
    5. Gao, Chong & Lin, Junjie & Zeng, Jianfeng & Han, Fengwu, 2022. "Wind-photovoltaic co-generation prediction and energy scheduling of low-carbon complex regional integrated energy system with hydrogen industry chain based on copula-MILP," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    6. Nithin Isaac & Akshay K. Saha, 2024. "Forecasting Hydrogen Vehicle Refuelling for Sustainable Transportation: A Light Gradient-Boosting Machine Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-24, May.
    7. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Diederik Coppitters & Helena Martín & Jordi de la Hoz, 2023. "Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty in Renewable Energy System Design: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-30, January.
    8. Zuzanna Kłos-Adamkiewicz & Elżbieta Szaruga & Agnieszka Gozdek & Magdalena Kogut-Jaworska, 2023. "Links between the Energy Intensity of Public Urban Transport, Regional Economic Growth and Urbanisation: The Case of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-25, April.

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