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A simulation-based methodology for quantifying European passenger car fleet CO2 emissions

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  • Tsiakmakis, Stefanos
  • Fontaras, Georgios
  • Ciuffo, Biagio
  • Samaras, Zissis

Abstract

Common approaches to assess the evolution of CO2 emissions from road vehicles are usually based on (a) estimates of future fleet composition, where most approaches consider vehicles at a rather aggregated level, and (b) emission factors, which are either based on CO2 certification data or statistically-provided functional relationships obtained from real world test data, or a combination of the two. This approach has certain limitations in capturing the effect of new technologies on CO2 emission related policy initiatives. The present study proposes a new method for the detailed calculation of the European light duty vehicle fleet CO2 emissions, which could help to overcome such limitations, achieve better results when making CO2 emissions projections and better support future policies. Simulation at individual vehicle level is combined with fleet composition data, retrieved from the official European CO2 emissions monitoring database, and publicly available data regarding individual vehicle characteristics in order to calculate vehicle CO2 emissions and fuel consumption over different conditions and vehicle configurations. The methodology is applied to analyze and assess the impact of the introduction of the new certification procedure, the Worldwide Light duty vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP), on the European car fleet CO2 emissions. Results show an average WLTP to NEDC CO2 emissions ratio of approximately 1.2. The increases in CO2 emissions are higher for cars exhibiting lower NEDC emission values (additional 29 and 25gCO2/km for vehicles emitting 100 and 119gCO2/km, respectively). At higher emission levels (about 250CO2g/km) WLTP and NEDC present comparable results. Three possible scenarios for the translation of projected NEDC CO2 emissions to WLTP-based ones are quantified.

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  • Tsiakmakis, Stefanos & Fontaras, Georgios & Ciuffo, Biagio & Samaras, Zissis, 2017. "A simulation-based methodology for quantifying European passenger car fleet CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 447-465.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:199:y:2017:i:c:p:447-465
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.04.045
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    10. Kangda Chen & Fuquan Zhao & Xinglong Liu & Han Hao & Zongwei Liu, 2021. "Impacts of the New Worldwide Light-Duty Test Procedure on Technology Effectiveness and China’s Passenger Vehicle Fuel Consumption Regulations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Antti Lajunen & Klaus Kivekäs & Jari Vepsäläinen & Kari Tammi, 2020. "Influence of Increasing Electrification of Passenger Vehicle Fleet on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Finland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-13, June.
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    13. Ciuffo, B. & Fontaras, G., 2017. "Models and scientific tools for regulatory purposes: The case of CO2 emissions from light duty vehicles in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 76-81.
    14. Guilherme Veludo & Manuel Cunha & Maria Manuel Sá & Carla Oliveira-Silva, 2021. "Offsetting the Impact of CO 2 Emissions Resulting from the Transport of Maiêutica’s Academic Campus Community," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-11, September.
    15. Song, Jingeun & Cha, Junepyo, 2022. "Development of prediction methodology for CO2 emissions and fuel economy of light duty vehicle," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    16. Wang, Sinan & Zhao, Fuquan & Liu, Zongwei & Hao, Han, 2018. "Impacts of a super credit policy on electric vehicle penetration and compliance with China's Corporate Average Fuel Consumption regulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 746-762.
    17. Tsiakmakis, Stefanos & Fontaras, Georgios & Dornoff, Jan & Valverde, Victor & Komnos, Dimitrios & Ciuffo, Biagio & Mock, Peter & Samaras, Zissis, 2019. "From lab-to-road & vice-versa: Using a simulation-based approach for predicting real-world CO2 emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 1153-1165.
    18. Christian Engström & Per Öberg & Georgios Fontaras & Barouch Giechaskiel, 2022. "Considerations for Achieving Equivalence between Hub- and Roller-Type Dynamometers for Vehicle Exhaust Emissions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-23, October.
    19. He, Liqiang & Hu, Jingnan & Zhang, Shaojun & Wu, Ye & Zhu, Rencheng & Zu, Lei & Bao, Xiaofeng & Lai, Yitu & Su, Sheng, 2018. "The impact from the direct injection and multi-port fuel injection technologies for gasoline vehicles on solid particle number and black carbon emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 819-826.
    20. Xinglong Liu & Fuquan Zhao & Han Hao & Kangda Chen & Zongwei Liu & Hassan Babiker & Amer Ahmad Amer, 2020. "From NEDC to WLTP: Effect on the Energy Consumption, NEV Credits, and Subsidies Policies of PHEV in the Chinese Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-19, July.
    21. Hooftman, Nils & Messagie, Maarten & Van Mierlo, Joeri & Coosemans, Thierry, 2018. "A review of the European passenger car regulations – Real driving emissions vs local air quality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-21.
    22. Karol Tucki & Remigiusz Mruk & Olga Orynycz & Katarzyna Botwińska & Arkadiusz Gola & Anna Bączyk, 2019. "Toxicity of Exhaust Fumes (CO, NO x ) of the Compression-Ignition (Diesel) Engine with the Use of Simulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-15, April.
    23. Salvo, Orlando de & Vaz de Almeida, Flávio G., 2019. "Influence of technologies on energy efficiency results of official Brazilian tests of vehicle energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 98-112.

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    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; Fuel consumption; NEDC; WLTP; Vehicle simulation;
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