IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v313y2025ics0378377425001933.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hazard assessment of compound drought and heat events on summer maize from agricultural and meteorological perspectives

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Qing
  • Wang, Peijuan
  • Li, Yang
  • Tang, Junxian
  • Li, Xin
  • Zhang, Yuanda
  • Han, Dianchen
  • Wang, Qi
  • Zhao, Yuncheng
  • Yang, Zaiqiang

Abstract

Hazard assessment serves as the foundation for agricultural climate disaster risk assessment. As the impact of compound drought and heat events on agricultural production continues to intensity, this study constructed a hazard assessment model using a compound magnitude index improved by pre-factors and joint probabilities fitted with optimal copula functions. The aim was to compare and analyze the evolution characteristics and hazards of compound meteorological drought and heat events (CMDHEs) and compound agricultural drought and heat events (CADHEs) during different growth stages of summer maize. The results show that, across different growth stages of summer maize, SPRI and STCI, as well as SPI and STCI, exhibit negative correlations in different decades, with a stronger negative correlation between SPRI and STCI during the tasseling to maturity stage from 2011 to 2023. The pre-effect of meteorological drought in CMDHEs is higher than that of agricultural drought and heat in CADHEs. Our study also revealed a significant upward trend in CADHEs and CMDHEs since 2013 and 2017 during the tasseling to flowering stage. From sowing to tasseling, the hazard levels of CADHEs and CMDHEs were higher in the central and southern parts of Hebei Province and most regions of Henan Province. Compared to CMDHEs, CADHEs exhibit higher frequency and greater hazards across different growth stages of summer maize. These findings provide valuable insights for disaster prevention and mitigation of summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China, ensuring food security and agricultural production.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Qing & Wang, Peijuan & Li, Yang & Tang, Junxian & Li, Xin & Zhang, Yuanda & Han, Dianchen & Wang, Qi & Zhao, Yuncheng & Yang, Zaiqiang, 2025. "Hazard assessment of compound drought and heat events on summer maize from agricultural and meteorological perspectives," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:313:y:2025:i:c:s0378377425001933
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109479
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425001933
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109479?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiang, Keyu & Wang, Bin & Liu, De Li & Chen, Chao & Waters, Cathy & Huete, Alfredo & Yu, Qiang, 2023. "Probabilistic assessment of drought impacts on wheat yield in south-eastern Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    2. Zhao, Yunmeng & Na, Mula & Guo, Ying & Liu, Xingping & Tong, Zhijun & Zhang, Jiquan & Zhao, Chunli, 2023. "Dynamic vulnerability assessment of maize under low temperature and drought concurrent stress in Songliao Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    3. Jiao, Fengli & Ding, Risheng & Du, Taisheng & Kang, Jian & Tong, Ling & Gao, Jia & Shao, Jie, 2024. "Multi-growth stage regulated deficit irrigation improves maize water productivity in an arid region of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    4. Corey Lesk & Pedram Rowhani & Navin Ramankutty, 2016. "Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production," Nature, Nature, vol. 529(7584), pages 84-87, January.
    5. Guo, Yajiaoxue & Sun, Zhanxiang & Bai, Wei & Zhang, Zhe & Zhang, Yue & Du, Hongjun & Sun, Tianran & Zhang, Jinyu & Peng, Pu & Ji, Yafei & Cai, Qian & Dong, Zhi & Zhang, Xu & Feng, Liangshan & Feng, Ch, 2024. "Drought risk assessment for maize/peanut intercropping based on crop model and SPEI," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    6. Zhi, Feng & Zhang, Jiquan & Bao, Yuhai & Bao, Yulong & Dong, Zhenhua & Tong, Zhijun & Liu, Xingpeng, 2024. "Assessment of waterlogging hazard during maize growth stage in the Songliao plain based on daily scale SPEI and SMAI," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    7. Yao, Ning & Li, Yi & Liu, Qingzhu & Zhang, Siyuan & Chen, Xinguo & Ji, Yadong & Liu, Fenggui & Pulatov, Alim & Feng, Puyu, 2022. "Response of wheat and maize growth-yields to meteorological and agricultural droughts based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indexes and soil moisture deficit indexes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    8. Hou, Miaolei & Li, Yi & Biswas, Asim & Chen, Xinguo & Xie, Lulu & Liu, Deli & Li, Linchao & Feng, Hao & Wu, Shufang & Satoh, Yusuke & Pulatov, Alim & Siddique, Kadambot H.M., 2024. "Concurrent drought threatens wheat and maize production and will widen crop yield gaps in the future," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    9. Huang, Shengzhi & Huang, Qiang & Chang, Jianxia & Leng, Guoyong & Xing, Li, 2015. "The response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought and the influencing factors: A case study in the Wei River Basin, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 45-54.
    10. Zhai, Weiguang & Cheng, Qian & Duan, Fuyi & Huang, Xiuqiao & Chen, Zhen, 2025. "Remote sensing-based analysis of yield and water-fertilizer use efficiency in winter wheat management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    11. Wang, Lin & Wei, Wei & Wang, Lixin & Chen, Shengnan & Duan, Weili & Zhang, Qiang & Tong, Bing & Han, Zhiming & Li, Zhi & Chen, Liding, 2025. "Trigger thresholds and propagation mechanism of meteorological drought to agricultural drought in an inland river basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    12. Zhang, Qi & Yu, Xin & Qiu, Rangjian & Liu, Zhongxian & Yang, Zaiqiang, 2022. "Evolution, severity, and spatial extent of compound drought and heat events in north China based on copula model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    13. Tazen Fowé & Roland Yonaba & Lawani Adjadi Mounirou & Etienne Ouédraogo & Boubacar Ibrahim & Dial Niang & Harouna Karambiri & Hamma Yacouba, 2023. "From meteorological to hydrological drought: a case study using standardized indices in the Nakanbe River Basin, Burkina Faso," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(3), pages 1941-1965, December.
    14. Zhang, Yu & Hao, Zengchao & Feng, Sifang & Zhang, Xuan & Hao, Fanghua, 2022. "Changes and driving factors of compound agricultural droughts and hot events in eastern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    15. Zhang, Yitong & Hao, Zengchao & Zhang, Yu, 2023. "Agricultural risk assessment of compound dry and hot events in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    16. Xu, Yingying & Lü, Haishen & Yagci, Ali Levent & Zhu, Yonghua & Liu, Di & Wang, Qimeng & Xu, Haiting & Pan, Ying & Su, Jianbin, 2024. "Influence of groundwater on the propagation of meteorological drought to agricultural drought during crop growth periods: A case study in Huaibei Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    17. Liu, Zhongxian & Qiu, Rangjian & Zhang, Qi, 2025. "Differences in effects of varying compound extreme temperature and precipitation events on summer maize yield in North China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    18. Qin, Nianxiu & Lu, Qinqin & Fu, Guobin & Wang, Junneng & Fei, Kai & Gao, Liang, 2023. "Assessing the drought impact on sugarcane yield based on crop water requirements and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    19. Suchul Kang & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, 2018. "North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    20. Yang, Yueting & Li, Kaiwei & Wei, Sicheng & Guga, Suri & Zhang, Jiquan & Wang, Chunyi, 2022. "Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and hazard assessment of millet drought disaster in Northern China under climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Zhongxian & Qiu, Rangjian & Zhang, Qi, 2025. "Differences in effects of varying compound extreme temperature and precipitation events on summer maize yield in North China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    2. Liu, Mengyu & Zhou, Xiong & Huang, Guohe & Li, Yongping, 2024. "The increasing water stress projected for China could shift the agriculture and manufacturing industry geographically," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124431, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Guga, Suri & Ma, Yining & Riao, Dao & Zhi, Feng & Xu, Jie & Zhang, Jiquan, 2023. "Drought monitoring of sugarcane and dynamic variation characteristics under global warming: A case study of Guangxi, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    4. Yang, Cuiping & Liu, Changhong & Xing, Xuguang & Ma, Xiaoyi, 2025. "Predicting the risk and trigger thresholds for propagation of meteorological droughts to agricultural droughts in China based on Copula-Bayesian model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    5. Meng, Huayue & Qian, Long, 2024. "Performances of different yield-detrending methods in assessing the impacts of agricultural drought and flooding: A case study in the middle-and-lower reach of the Yangtze River, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    6. Cai, Siyang & Zuo, Depeng & Wang, Huixiao & Xu, Zongxue & Wang, GuoQing & Yang, Hong, 2023. "Assessment of agricultural drought based on multi-source remote sensing data in a major grain producing area of Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    7. He, Liuyue & Xu, Zhenci & Wang, Sufen & Bao, Jianxia & Fan, Yunfei & Daccache, Andre, 2022. "Optimal crop planting pattern can be harmful to reach carbon neutrality: Evidence from food-energy-water-carbon nexus perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    8. El-Saied E. Metwaly & Hatim M. Al-Yasi & Esmat F. Ali & Hamada A. Farouk & Saad Farouk, 2022. "Deteriorating Harmful Effects of Drought in Cucumber by Spraying Glycinebetaine," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-16, December.
    9. repec:ags:aaea22:335489 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen & Pavinee Chanvichit, 2024. "Historical Analysis of the Effects of Drought on Rice and Maize Yields in Southeast Asia," Resources, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, March.
    11. Ping Zhang & Zhuo Chen & Gang Ding & Jiaqi Fang & Jinglong Fan & Shengyu Li, 2024. "Spatial Analysis and Risk Assessment of Meteorological Disasters Affecting Cotton Cultivation in Xinjiang: A Comprehensive Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-17, June.
    12. Liu, Zhipeng & Jiao, Xiyun & Zhu, Chengli & Katul, Gabriel G. & Ma, Junyong & Guo, Weihua, 2021. "Micro-climatic and crop responses to micro-sprinkler irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    13. Teresa Armada Brás & Jonas Jägermeyr & Júlia Seixas, 2019. "Exposure of the EU-28 food imports to extreme weather disasters in exporting countries," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1373-1393, December.
    14. Yusifzada, Tural, 2022. "Response of Inflation to the Climate Stress: Evidence from Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 116522, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2022.
    15. Dániel Fróna & János Szenderák & Mónika Harangi-Rákos, 2019. "The Challenge of Feeding the World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-18, October.
    16. Balázs Varga & Zsuzsanna Farkas & Emese Varga-László & Gyula Vida & Ottó Veisz, 2022. "Elevated Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Influences the Rooting Habits of Winter-Wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) Varieties," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, March.
    17. Fengchun Ye & Pinya Wang & Yang Yang & Lili Ren & Jianping Tang & Hong Liao, 2025. "Anthropogenic forcing dominates changes in compound long-duration dry and heat extremes in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(2), pages 1-19, February.
    18. Guga, Suri & Bole, Yi & Riao, Dao & Bilige, Sudu & Wei, Sicheng & Li, Kaiwei & Zhang, Jiquan & Tong, Zhijun & Liu, Xingpeng, 2025. "The challenge of chilling injury amid shifting maize planting boundaries: A case study of Northeast China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    19. Qimeng Pan & Lysa Porth & Hong Li, 2022. "Assessing the Effectiveness of the Actuaries Climate Index for Estimating the Impact of Extreme Weather on Crop Yield and Insurance Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-24, June.
    20. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    21. Shahzad, Muhammad Faisal & Abdulai, Awudu, 2020. "Adaptation to extreme weather conditions and farm performance in rural Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:313:y:2025:i:c:s0378377425001933. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.