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Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and hazard assessment of millet drought disaster in Northern China under climate change

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  • Yang, Yueting
  • Li, Kaiwei
  • Wei, Sicheng
  • Guga, Suri
  • Zhang, Jiquan
  • Wang, Chunyi

Abstract

Due to the national nutrition crisis and the adjustment of planting structure, millet has once again become a widely planted cash crop in Northern China. However, as the climate warms in recent years, drought has occurred frequently and repeatedly in Northern China, which has seriously threatened millet production safety in this area. Therefore, it is urgent to clarify the hazard of millet drought disaster and provide reference for the formulation of millet disaster prevention and reduction measures. In this paper, combined with the water demand of millet in each growth period, Standardized Precipitation Requirement Index (SPRI) was selected to identify and quantify the drought disaster of millet. Considering the impact of different degrees of drought in different growth periods, a hazard assessment model is constructed to evaluate the hazard of millet drought disaster in Northern China under the background of climate change. The results show that: (1) SPRI can well characterize the drought of millet in Northern China. (2) In the context of climate change, millet drought in Northern China shows a trend of increasing intensity and decreasing frequency, and it is possible that millet drought will be even more severe in the future. (3) Combined with the hazard assessment model, millet drought in Northern China will still be dominated by middle hazard in the future, but the areas with high hazard will gradually increase, mainly distributed in northeast China, central and western Inner Mongolia and northern Gansu. The research results can be of great practical significance for the adjustment of agricultural production structure in the future, especially for the sustainable development of agriculture and the formulation of measures to prevent and resist agricultural disasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Yueting & Li, Kaiwei & Wei, Sicheng & Guga, Suri & Zhang, Jiquan & Wang, Chunyi, 2022. "Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and hazard assessment of millet drought disaster in Northern China under climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:272:y:2022:i:c:s0378377422003961
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107849
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhao Zhang & Yi Chen & Pin Wang & Shuai Zhang & Fulu Tao & Xiaofei Liu, 2014. "Spatial and temporal changes of agro-meteorological disasters affecting maize production in China since 1990," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 2087-2100, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Shiwei & Ye, Fan & Xia, Dufei & Liu, Zijin & Wu, Yangzhong & Chen, Fu, 2023. "Climate change impacts assessment and developing adaptation strategies for rainfed foxtail millet in northern Shanxi, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    2. Chenle Xue & Dan Qiao & Noshaba Aziz, 2022. "Influence of Natural Disaster Shock and Collective Action on Farmland Transferees’ No-Tillage Technology Adoption in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-23, September.
    3. Joanna Wicher-Dysarz & Tomasz Dysarz & Joanna Jaskuła, 2022. "Uncertainty in Determination of Meteorological Drought Zones Based on Standardized Precipitation Index in the Territory of Poland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-18, November.
    4. Guga, Suri & Ma, Yining & Riao, Dao & Zhi, Feng & Xu, Jie & Zhang, Jiquan, 2023. "Drought monitoring of sugarcane and dynamic variation characteristics under global warming: A case study of Guangxi, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).

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