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North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation

Author

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  • Suchul Kang

    (Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART) Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling (CENSAM))

  • Elfatih A. B. Eltahir

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

North China Plain is the heartland of modern China. This fertile plain has experienced vast expansion of irrigated agriculture which cools surface temperature and moistens surface air, but boosts integrated measures of temperature and humidity, and hence enhances intensity of heatwaves. Here, we project based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that climate change would add significantly to the anthropogenic effects of irrigation, increasing the risk from heatwaves in this region. Under the business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, North China Plain is likely to experience deadly heatwaves with wet-bulb temperature exceeding the threshold defining what Chinese farmers may tolerate while working outdoors. China is currently the largest contributor to the emissions of greenhouse gases, with potentially serious implications to its own population: continuation of the current pattern of global emissions may limit habitability in the most populous region, of the most populous country on Earth.

Suggested Citation

  • Suchul Kang & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, 2018. "North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-05252-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05252-y
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    2. Mullins, Jamie T. & White, Corey, 2019. "Temperature and mental health: Evidence from the spectrum of mental health outcomes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Jennifer Vanos & Gisel Guzman-Echavarria & Jane W. Baldwin & Coen Bongers & Kristie L. Ebi & Ollie Jay, 2023. "A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Xiaoxiao Li & Jing Ma & Yongjun Yang & Huping Hou & Gang-Jun Liu & Fu Chen, 2019. "Short-Term Response of Soil Microbial Community to Field Conversion from Dryland to Paddy under the Land Consolidation Process in North China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-17, October.
    5. Yan, Zongzheng & Zhang, Xiying & Rashid, Muhammad Adil & Li, Hongjun & Jing, Haichun & Hochman, Zvi, 2020. "Assessment of the sustainability of different cropping systems under three irrigation strategies in the North China Plain under climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    6. Li, Doudou & Liu, Jinqiang & Verhoef, Anne & Xi, Benye & Hernandez-Santana, Virginia, 2021. "Understanding the relationship between biomass production and water use of Populus tomentosa trees throughout an entire short-rotation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    7. Nicholas Stern & Joseph Stiglitz & Charlotte Taylor, 2022. "The economics of immense risk, urgent action and radical change: towards new approaches to the economics of climate change," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 181-216, July.
    8. Hongbo Liu & Hanho Kim & Shuanglu Liang & Oh-Sang Kwon, 2018. "Export Diversification and Ecological Footprint: A Comparative Study on EKC Theory among Korea, Japan, and China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-12, October.
    9. Stern, Nicholas, 2021. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112808, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Li, Xue & Smyth, Russell & Yao, Yao, 2023. "Extreme temperatures and out-of-pocket medical expenditure: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Hannu S. Laine & Jyri Salpakari & Erin E. Looney & Hele Savin & Ian Marius Peters & Tonio Buonassisi, 2019. "Meeting Global Cooling Demand with Photovoltaics during the 21st Century," Papers 1902.10080, arXiv.org.
    12. Stern, Nicholas, 2022. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113456, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Stern, Nicholas, 2021. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112802, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Feiyu Wang & Keqin Duan & Lei Zou, 2019. "Urbanization Effects on Human-Perceived Temperature Changes in the North China Plain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, June.
    15. Wang, Xia & Ding, Chao & Cai, Weiguang & Luo, Lizi & Chen, Mingman, 2021. "Identifying household cooling savings potential in the hot summer and cold winter climate zone in China: A stochastic demand frontier approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    16. Marie-Noëlle Woillez & Gaël Giraud & Antoine Godin, 2020. "Economic impacts of a glacial period: a thought experiment to assess the disconnect between econometrics and climate sciences," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03102681, HAL.
    17. Jinxiu Liu & Weihao Shen & Yaqian He, 2021. "Effects of Cropland Expansion on Temperature Extremes in Western India from 1982 to 2015," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-17, May.
    18. Liu, Yansui & Zhou, Yang, 2021. "Reflections on China's food security and land use policy under rapid urbanization," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    19. Shirazi, Sana Zeeshan & Mei, Xurong & Liu, Buchun & Liu, Yuan, 2021. "Assessment of the AquaCrop Model under different irrigation scenarios in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    20. Yixu Wang & Mingxue Xu & Jun Li & Nan Jiang & Dongchuan Wang & Lei Yao & Ying Xu, 2020. "The Gradient Effect on the Relationship between the Underlying Factor and Land Surface Temperature in Large Urbanized Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
    21. Zhang, Qi & Yu, Xin & Qiu, Rangjian & Liu, Zhongxian & Yang, Zaiqiang, 2022. "Evolution, severity, and spatial extent of compound drought and heat events in north China based on copula model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).

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