IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2023-05-64.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relationship between Oil Prices and Russia Exchange Indices: Analysis of Frequency Causality

Author

Listed:
  • Nurkhodzha Akbulaev

    (Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Baku, Azerbaijan,)

  • Imangulu Muradzada

    (Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Baku, Azerbaijan,)

  • Ziyadhan Hasanov

    (Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC); & Center for Economic Studies of the Turkic World, Baku, Azerbaijan)

Abstract

One of the important research topics is the potential impact of changes in oil supply and demand on current and future price movements or financial market instruments. Especially in developing countries such as Russia, which is an oil and natural gas exporter, sanctions on oil exports affect the country on a macroscale and businesses on a microscale. In this context, the aim of the aforementioned study is to examine the causality relationship between Brent oil price, which is an important input for the chemistry and transportation sectors, and the Moscow Stock Exchange MOEX Chemicals, MOEX Transport, and MOEX Financials indices using Breitung and Candelon frequency causality analysis. For this purpose, monthly data for the period January 2015–December 2022 were analysed first with traditional Granger causality analysis, Toda and Yamamoto causality analysis, and finally with Breitung and Candelon frequency causality analysis. Traditional Granger causality analysis (Toda and Yamamoto causality analysis) revealed a bidirectional causality relationship between Brent Petrol and the MOEX Chemistry and MOEX Finance Indices. However, there is no causality between Brent Petroleum and MOEX Transport. As a result of the Breitung and Candelon frequency causality analysis, causality has been determined from oil prices to stock prices in the chemical sectors, both in the short term, in the medium term, and in the long term. Only short-term causality has been found between Brent oil prices and stock prices in the financial and transportation sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Nurkhodzha Akbulaev & Imangulu Muradzada & Ziyadhan Hasanov, 2023. "Relationship between Oil Prices and Russia Exchange Indices: Analysis of Frequency Causality," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 607-615, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-05-64
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/14123/7521
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/14123
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ciner, Cetin, 2011. "Eurocurrency interest rate linkages: A frequency domain analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 498-505, October.
    2. Javid Suleymanli & Ilkin Mammadov & Fariz Ahmadov & Tabriz Aliyev, 2022. "Investigation of the Relationship Between Fuel Prices and Fuel Consumption in Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 473-480, November.
    3. Hashmi, Shabir Mohsin & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Huang, Liangfang & Uche, Emmanuel, 2022. "Revisiting the relationship between oil prices, exchange rate, and stock prices: An application of quantile ARDL model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Granger, Clive W.J. & YOON, GAWON, 2002. "Hidden Cointegration," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9qn5f61j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    5. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
    6. Kamaldeen Ajala & Musa Abdullahi Sakanko & Sesan Oluseyi Adeniji, 2021. "The Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on the Exchange Rate and Stock Price in Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 202-208.
    7. Bastianin, Andrea & Conti, Francesca & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 160-169.
    8. Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-532, September.
    9. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    10. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    11. Roger D. Huang & Ronald W. Masulis & Hans R. Stoll, 1996. "Energy shocks and financial markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, February.
    12. Ma, Feng & Wang, Ruoxin & Lu, Xinjie & Wahab, M.I.M., 2021. "A comprehensive look at stock return predictability by oil prices using economic constraint approaches," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Bert Scholtens & Lei Wang, 2008. "Oil Risk in Oil Stocks," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(1), pages 89-112, January.
    14. Zheng Shi & Dongmin Kong, 2021. "Oil Price-Stock Market Nexus During the COVID-19 Pandemic - Evidence From China," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-4.
    15. Yun, Xiao & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "Impact of oil price change on airline's stock price and volatility: Evidence from China and South Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 668-679.
    16. Kenneth Chikezie Anyalechi & Hillary Chijindu Ezeaku & Josaphat. U. J. Onwumere & E. J. Okereke, 2019. "Does Oil Price Fluctuation Affect Stock Market Returns in Nigeria?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 194-199.
    17. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
    18. Ho Thuy Tien, 2022. "Oil price shocks and Vietnam’s macroeconomic fundamentals: quantile-on-quantile approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2095767-209, December.
    19. El-Sharif, Idris & Brown, Dick & Burton, Bruce & Nixon, Bill & Russell, Alex, 2005. "Evidence on the nature and extent of the relationship between oil prices and equity values in the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 819-830, November.
    20. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    21. Zeravan Abdulmuhsen Asaad, 2021. "Oil Price, Gold Price, Exchange Rate and Stock Market in Iraq Pre-During COVID19 Outbreak: An ARDL Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 562-571.
    22. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Fariz Saleh Ahmadov & lgar Zulfigar Seyfullayev & Natig Gadim-Ogli Hajiyev, 2020. "The Relationship between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 436-455.
    23. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    24. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    25. Bashir, Muhammad Adnan & Sheng, Bin & Doğan, Buhari & Sarwar, Suleman & Shahzad, Umer, 2020. "Export product diversification and energy efficiency: Empirical evidence from OECD countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 232-243.
    26. Mohd Atif & Mustafa Raza Rabbani & Hana Bawazir & Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & Daouia Chebab & Sitara Karim & Amani AlAbbas, 2022. "Oil price changes and stock returns: Fresh evidence from oil exporting and oil importing countries," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2018163-201, December.
    27. Cong, Rong-Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Jiao, Jian-Lin & Fan, Ying, 2008. "Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3544-3553, September.
    28. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2012. "Asymmetric interaction between government spending and terms of trade volatility: New evidence from hidden cointegration technique," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(3), pages 368-378, December.
    29. Zheng Shi & Dongmin Kong, 2021. "Oil Price-Stock Market Nexus During the COVID-19 Pandemic - Evidence From China," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-4.
    30. Endri Endri & Muhamad Rinaldi & Dini Arifian & Bungaran Saing & Aminudin Aminudin, 2021. "Oil Price and Stock Return: Evidence of Mining Companies in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 110-114.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(5), pages 85-130, September.
    2. Hanif, Waqas & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Kang, Sang Hoon & Boako, Gideon & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2024. "Interdependence and spillovers between big oil companies and regional and global energy equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 451-469.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Quantile relationship between oil and stock returns: Evidence from emerging and frontier stock markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Rizwan Ahmed & Muhammad Ali Nasir & Muhammad Shahbaz & Ngoc Quang Anh Huynh, 2024. "The nexus between black and digital gold: evidence from US markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 334(1), pages 521-546, March.
    5. Mokni, Khaled, 2020. "A dynamic quantile regression model for the relationship between oil price and stock markets in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Manel Youssef & Khaled Mokni, 2019. "Do Crude Oil Prices Drive the Relationship between Stock Markets of Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-22, July.
    7. Mushtaq Hussain Khan & Junaid Ahmed & Mazhar Mughal & Imtiaz Hussain Khan, 2023. "Oil price volatility and stock returns: Evidence from three oil‐price wars," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3162-3182, July.
    8. Jinghua Wang & Geoffrey Ngene, 2018. "Symmetric and asymmetric nonlinear causalities between oil prices and the U.S. economic sectors," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 199-218, July.
    9. Boldanov, Rustam & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Time-varying correlation between oil and stock market volatilities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 209-220.
    10. Chen, Yufeng & Msofe, Zulkifr Abdallah & Wang, Chuwen, 2024. "Asymmetric dynamic spillover and time-frequency connectedness in the oil-stock nexus under COVID-19 shock: Evidence from African oil importers and exporters," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Shahrestani, Parnia & Rafei, Meysam, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks on Tehran Stock Exchange returns: Application of the Markov switching vector autoregressive models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Heidari, Hassan & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz, 2015. "How Do Different Oil Price Shocks Affect the Relationship Between Oil and Stock Markets?," MPRA Paper 80273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2016.
    13. Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Sharif, Arshian & Aman, Ameenullah & Suki, Norazah Mohd & Salman, Asma & Khan, Syed Abdul Rehman, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of oil price on sectoral Islamic stocks: New evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Ferreira, Paulo & Pereira, Éder Johson de Area Leão & Silva, Marcus Fernandes da & Pereira, Hernane Borges, 2019. "Detrended correlation coefficients between oil and stock markets: The effect of the 2008 crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 86-96.
    15. Rania Jammazi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2015. "Responses of international stock markets to oil price surges: a regime-switching perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(41), pages 4408-4422, September.
    16. Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2013. "The impact of global oil price shocks on the Lebanese stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 366-374.
    17. Nasim, Asma & Ullah, Subhan & Kim, Ja Ryong & Hameed, Affan, 2023. "Energy shocks and bank efficiency in emerging economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    18. Hanif, Waqas & Hadhri, Sinda & El Khoury, Rim, 2024. "Quantile spillovers and connectedness between oil shocks and stock markets of the largest oil producers and consumers," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    19. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    20. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Bouri, Elie, 2016. "The directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets: New evidence from implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 78-93.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-05-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.