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The Impact of Oil Prices on the Stock Market and Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Kazakhstan

Author

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  • Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakstan)

  • Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakstan)

  • Artur Bolganbayev

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakstan)

  • Sabit Baimaganbetov

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakstan)

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between KASE stock market closing prices and oil prices is analyzed using ADF and Zivot-Andrews (1992) unit root tests and monthly data for the period of 2016-2021. First, the variables are tested for causality. Results show that there is a causal relationship between the real exchange rate and closing prices and between oil prices and the real exchange rate. The short-term effects of the variables are investigated using the VAR method. Results show that Brent crude oil prices have a positive effect on KASE closing prices, while the real exchange rate has a negative effect. In conclusion, changes in oil prices affect the formation of stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Artur Bolganbayev & Sabit Baimaganbetov, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Stock Market and Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 163-168.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2022-01-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Artur Bolganbayev & Sabit Baimaganbetov, 2022. "The Effects of the Oil Price Shock on Inflation: The Case of Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 477-481, May.
    2. Gulmira Moldabekova & Zhanarys Raimbekov & Arsen Tleppayev & Yuliya Tyurina & Raushan Yesbergen & Gulimai Amaniyazova, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Macroeconomic Indicators of Kazakhstan and the Consequences for the Formation of Social Policy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 447-454, July.
    3. Shafa Guliyeva, 2023. "Analysis of the effect of Energy Prices on Stock Indexes During the Epidemic Crisis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 526-536, March.
    4. Artur Bolganbayev & Baltaim Sabenova & Gulmira Mombekova & Gulnur Sultankhanova & Tazhibayeva Raikhan Musamatovna, 2022. "The Effect of Electricity Generation, Thermal Energy Production, Fixed Capital Investment, and Consumer Price Index on Economic Growth in Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 67-72, November.
    5. Nurkhodzha Akbulaev & Elshan Mammadli & Gadir Bayramli, 2022. "The Effect of Energy Prices on Stock Indices in the Period of COVID-19: Evidence from Russia, Turkey, Brazil, and India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 262-269, May.
    6. Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Bektur Keneshbayev & Dina I. Razakova & Indira Kenzhebekova & Zhansulu Pirmanova, 2022. "Analysis of Causality Relationship Between the Economic Growth and the Energy Production and Technological Investments in Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 123-126, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Price; KASE Stock Market Closing Prices; Real Exchange Rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • P42 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Productive Enterprises; Factor and Product Markets; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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