The resilience of South African maize industry, in a world of market disruptions: ECM application

Maize has been the most important field crop in the Republic of South Africa for the past three decades. Studying resilience on this significant crop will aid in mitigating risks associated with shocks or disruptions in the maize production equilibrium. The study employed descriptive analysis to study resilience of the maize industry. The results revealed that the South African maize industry reduced the area under production but farmers were still able to sustain and even increase the volumes of production. Moreover, the results revealed that maize export quantities have been increasing consistently, this being an indication that farmers are well advanced in producing according to export quality standards and therefore even in the midst of a crisis or disruptions everything remains constant. In addition, vector error correction model (VECM) was employed to study the extent to which maize production responds to shocks in the market to quantify resilience. The results revealed that the error correction term is negative and statistically significant at approximately 50% meaning that the system will converge from short run disturbances towards the long run equilibrium. Considering the magnitude of the resilience, this study recommends that the government should continue to invest in agriculture research and development to support maize farmers with improved technology innovations that enhance productivity. Furthermore, awareness of high yielding cultivars, drought tolerant and pest resistant to maize farmers should be prioritised as a fundamental measure.