IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaae23/364837.html

The resilience of South African maize industry, in a world of market disruptions: ECM application

Author

Listed:
  • Zitha, N.B.
  • Kau, J.S.
  • Mazwane, S.
  • Senyolo, G.M.

Abstract

Maize has been the most important field crop in the Republic of South Africa for the past three decades. Studying resilience on this significant crop will aid in mitigating risks associated with shocks or disruptions in the maize production equilibrium. The study employed descriptive analysis to study resilience of the maize industry. The results revealed that the South African maize industry reduced the area under production but farmers were still able to sustain and even increase the volumes of production. Moreover, the results revealed that maize export quantities have been increasing consistently, this being an indication that farmers are well advanced in producing according to export quality standards and therefore even in the midst of a crisis or disruptions everything remains constant. In addition, vector error correction model (VECM) was employed to study the extent to which maize production responds to shocks in the market to quantify resilience. The results revealed that the error correction term is negative and statistically significant at approximately 50% meaning that the system will converge from short run disturbances towards the long run equilibrium. Considering the magnitude of the resilience, this study recommends that the government should continue to invest in agriculture research and development to support maize farmers with improved technology innovations that enhance productivity. Furthermore, awareness of high yielding cultivars, drought tolerant and pest resistant to maize farmers should be prioritised as a fundamental measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Zitha, N.B. & Kau, J.S. & Mazwane, S. & Senyolo, G.M., 2023. "The resilience of South African maize industry, in a world of market disruptions: ECM application," 2023 Seventh AAAE/60th AEASA Conference, September 18-21, 2023, Durban, South Africa 364837, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaae23:364837
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.364837
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/364837/files/336.%20Maize%20resilience%20in%20South%20Africa.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.364837?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Artur Bolganbayev & Sabit Baimaganbetov, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Stock Market and Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 163-168.
    2. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Joint Bayesian inference about impulse responses in VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 457-476.
    3. Zulaiha Hamidu & Priscilla B. Oppong & Emmanuel Asafo-Adjei & Anokye Mohammed Adam & Yuxing Li, 2022. "On the Agricultural Commodities Supply Chain Resilience to Disruption: Insights from Financial Analysis," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-12, September.
    4. Mesay Yami & Ferdi Meyer & Rashid Hassan, 2020. "The impact of production shocks on maize markets in Ethiopia: implications for regional trade and food security," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gulmira Moldabekova & Zhanarys Raimbekov & Arsen Tleppayev & Yuliya Tyurina & Raushan Yesbergen & Gulimai Amaniyazova, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Macroeconomic Indicators of Kazakhstan and the Consequences for the Formation of Social Policy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 447-454, July.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Jochen Güntner & Magnus Reif & Maik Wolters, 2024. "Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1282-1300, November.
    4. Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Bektur Keneshbayev & Dina I. Razakova & Indira Kenzhebekova & Zhansulu Pirmanova, 2022. "Analysis of Causality Relationship Between the Economic Growth and the Energy Production and Technological Investments in Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 123-126, November.
    5. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni & Tarbé, Matthieu, 2023. "Monetary–fiscal crosswinds in the European Monetary Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Long-term inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Herrera, Ana María & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2025. "The time-varying effects of oil news on inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    8. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2024. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy via Common Cycles in the Euro Area," Papers 2410.05741, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    9. Yu, Mingzhao & Li, Huafu & Song, Shuai & Shan, Xinyue & He, Guizhen & Li, Fadong & Shi, Yajuan & Hirwa, Hubert & Chen, Gang, 2025. "Addressing Ethiopia's grand challenge of achieving food security while ensuring land-use sustainability," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Rubaszek, Michał & Szafranek, Karol, 2025. "Modelling oil consumption in Baumeister and Hamilton’s (2019) model of the global oil market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    11. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2023. "Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks to real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2025. "Does uncertainty amplify the inflation pass-through of gasoline price shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    13. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa & Matthew Read, 2021. "Identification and Inference Under Narrative Restrictions," Papers 2102.06456, arXiv.org.
    14. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2020. "The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions," Working Papers 2030, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Kilian, Lutz, 2025. "Impulse response diagnostics for priors on parameters in structural vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    16. Zamzagul Sultanova & Galimzhan A. Pazilov & Lyailya Baibulekova & Gulzhakhan Kassymbekova & Gulnar Lukhmanova & Gulmira Issayeva & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy, 2024. "Comparative Analysis of the Volatility Structures of the Stock Prices of Energy Companies Traded on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange and International Gold and Oil Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 21-30, January.
    17. Finck, David & Tillmann, Peter, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain disruptions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    18. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Robin Braun, 2023. "The importance of supply and demand for oil prices: Evidence from non‐Gaussianity," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1163-1198, November.
    20. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaae23:364837. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaaeaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.