IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2021-06-50.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of Oil Prices on the Economic Growth of Oil Exporting Countries Bordering the Caspian Sea: Panel Data Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Artur Bolganbayev

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakstan.)

  • Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakstan.)

  • Sabit Baimaganbetov

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakstan.)

  • Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakstan.)

Abstract

Oil price volatility has increased tremendously in the last decade and has become the most difficult commodity to predict. The price of Brent crude oil was 42 US dollars in 2020, whereas it is 72 dollars today. All countries are adversely affected by this volatility. But the severity of it differs between countries. Especially oil-exporting countries are expected to be affected more negatively. Among the countries bordering the Caspian Sea, the national incomes of Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan are largely based on oil exports; therefore they are heavily affected by the volatility in oil prices. Therefore, energy security, which is one of the most important international security topics, is a political and economic priority for the countries bordering the Caspian Sea. In this study, the effects of the price changes in Brent crude oil on the economic growth and energy security of these countries were examined using Panel data analysis with the quarterly data for the period 2007-2020. The order of integration of the variables discussed in the study is examined using the Pesaran (2007) panel unit root test, which takes the cross-sectional dependence into account. The long-term relationship between Brent oil price and economic growth is examined using the Westerlund (2007) cointegration test. The results show that oil prices affect economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Artur Bolganbayev & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Sabit Baimaganbetov & Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev, 2021. "The Effect of Oil Prices on the Economic Growth of Oil Exporting Countries Bordering the Caspian Sea: Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 432-437.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-06-50
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/11835/6148
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/11835/6148
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sabit Baimaganbetov & Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev & Rima Yermankulova & Bibigul Izzatullaeva & Botagoz Almukhambetova, 2019. "Effects of Oil Price Changes on Regional Real Income Per Capita in Kazakhstan: Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 356-362.
    2. Mehmet DEMİRAL & Harun BAL & Emrah Eray AKÇA, 2016. "Petrol Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 24(27).
    3. Roselyne Joyeux & Ronald D. Ripple, 2011. "Energy Consumption and Real Income: A Panel Cointegration Multi-country Study," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 107-142.
    4. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    5. Sabit Baimaganbetov & Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev & Gulzhan Baibosynova & Rima Yermankulova & Botagoz Dandayeva, 2021. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Food Inflation in Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 73-79.
    6. François Lescaroux & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables," Working Papers 2008-05, CEPII research center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olga Miroshnichenko & Elena Iakovleva & Natalia Voronova, 2022. "Banking Sector Profitability: Does Household Income Matter?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Artur Bolganbayev & Baltaim Sabenova & Gulmira Mombekova & Gulnur Sultankhanova & Tazhibayeva Raikhan Musamatovna, 2022. "The Effect of Electricity Generation, Thermal Energy Production, Fixed Capital Investment, and Consumer Price Index on Economic Growth in Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 67-72, November.
    3. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiev, 2024. "Analysis of the Main Social Macroeconomic Indicators of the Population During The oil Boom in Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 135-149, March.
    4. Aizhan Ibyzhanova & Zamzagul Sultanova & Zhanna T. Aliyeva & Karlygash Tastanbekova & Saken Ualikhanovich Abdibekov & Bagila Mustafayeva & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy, 2024. "The Effect of Energy Production and Foreign Trade on the Economic Growth of Turkic Republics: A Study Using Panel Data Analysis Method," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 126-134, March.
    5. Ainur Yergazievna Yesbolova & Tolkyn Abdulova & Murat Nurgabylov & Sapargul Yessenbekova & Svetlana Turalina & Gulnara Baytaeva & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy, 2024. "Analysis of the Effect of Renewable Energy Consumption and Industrial Production on CO2 Emissions in Turkic Republics by Panel Data Analysis Method," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 480-487, January.
    6. Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Artur Bolganbayev & Sabit Baimaganbetov, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Stock Market and Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 163-168.
    7. Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Bektur Keneshbayev & Dina I. Razakova & Indira Kenzhebekova & Zhansulu Pirmanova, 2022. "Analysis of Causality Relationship Between the Economic Growth and the Energy Production and Technological Investments in Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 123-126, November.
    8. Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Artur Bolganbayev & Sabit Baimaganbetov, 2022. "The Effects of the Oil Price Shock on Inflation: The Case of Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 477-481, May.
    9. Saken Ualikhanovich Abdibekov & Yelena Evgenevna Gridneva & Gulnar Shaimardanovna Kaliakparova & Nazigul Amankeldikyzy Amankeldi & Gulmira Amangeldiyevna Perneyeva & Bauyrzhan Susaruly Kulbay & Kundyz, 2024. "The Relationship between Energy Consumption, Agricultural and Industrial Production, and Economic Growth: ARDL Border Value Approach in the Case of Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 79-86, May.
    10. Zamzagul Sultanova & Galimzhan A. Pazilov & Lyailya Baibulekova & Gulzhakhan Kassymbekova & Gulnar Lukhmanova & Gulmira Issayeva & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy, 2024. "Comparative Analysis of the Volatility Structures of the Stock Prices of Energy Companies Traded on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange and International Gold and Oil Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 21-30, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. GU, Jianqiang & Umar, Muhammad & Soran, Semih & Yue, Xiao-Guang, 2020. "Exacerbating effect of energy prices on resource curse: Can research and development be a mitigating factor?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Teklewold, Hailemariam, 2011. "Farming or burning? shadow prices and farmer’s impatience on the allocation of multi-purpose resource in the mixed farming system of Ethiopia," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 116080, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Meghamrita Chakraborty, 2023. "Linking Migration, Diversity and Regional Development in India," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 8(1), pages 55-72, January.
    4. Hany Eldemerdash & Hugh Metcalf & Sara Maioli, 2014. "Twin deficits: new evidence from a developing (oil vs. non-oil) countries’ perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 825-851, November.
    5. Iheonu O Chimere & Tochukwu Nwachukwu, 2020. "Macroeconomic determinants of household consumption in selected West African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1596-1606.
    6. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2019. "Saving and investment causality: implications for financial integration in transition countries of Eastern Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 397-416, April.
    7. Huy Quang Doan, 2019. "Trade, Institutional Quality and Income: Empirical Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-23, May.
    8. Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Talknice Saungweme, "undated". "Does International Tourism Spur International Trade In Ssa Countries? A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI07, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    9. Zhao, Jun & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Dong, Kangyin, 2022. "How does energy poverty eradication promote green growth in China? The role of technological innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    10. Gregorio Giménez Esteban, 2007. "Violence and Growth in Latin America," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 6, pages 1-34, July.
    11. repec:wyi:journl:002087 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Lin, Boqiang & Okoye, Jude O., 2023. "Towards renewable energy generation and low greenhouse gas emission in high-income countries: Performance of financial development and governance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    13. Mehmet Balcilar & Daberechi Chikezie Ekwueme & Hakki Ciftci, 2023. "Assessing the Effects of Natural Resource Extraction on Carbon Emissions and Energy Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa: A STIRPAT Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
    14. Usama Almulali & Che Normee Binti Che Sab, 2013. "Exploring the impact of oil revenues on OPEC members' macroeconomy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(4), pages 416-428, December.
    15. Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2012. "Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 365-373.
    16. Weliwita, Ananda & Azzam, Azzeddine M., 1996. "Identifying Implicit Collusion Under Declining Output Demand," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 1-12, December.
    17. Ehigiamusoe, Kizito Uyi & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2020. "The moderating role of energy consumption in the carbon emissions-income nexus in middle-income countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    18. Skoufias, Emmanuel, 1998. "Determinants of child health during the economic transition in Romania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2045-2056, November.
    19. Hosan, Shahadat & Rahman, Md Matiar & Karmaker, Shamal Chandra & Saha, Bidyut Baran, 2023. "Energy subsidies and energy technology innovation: Policies for polygeneration systems diffusion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    20. Muhammad Shahbaz & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Perry Sadorsky, 2018. "How strong is the causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption in developed economies? A country-specific time-series and panel analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1479-1494, March.
    21. Zekeriya Mizirak & Kivanç Altintaş, 2018. "The nexus between governance factors and foreign direct investments: Evidence from panel data," Journal of Administrative and Business Studies, Professor Dr. Usman Raja, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Countries Bordering the Caspian Sea; Oil Prices; Economic Growth; Panel Cointegration Test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P42 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Productive Enterprises; Factor and Product Markets; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-06-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.