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Does the Development of Renewable Energy and Smart Grids Pose Risks for Russian Gas Projects? Scenario Forecast for Partner Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Svetlana V. Ratner

    (V. A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia,)

  • Evgenii Yu. Khrustalev

    (Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia.)

  • Sergey N. Larin

    (Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia.)

  • Oleg E. Khrustalev

    (Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia.)

Abstract

In this article we examine the risks of reducing the consumption of natural gas in the countries that are the largest exporters of Russian natural gas (Germany, Italy, Turkey, China) caused by the development of renewable energy. The forecast of natural gas consumption is built up to 2030 by extrapolating the trend of time series, while selecting the type of trend takes into account the S-shaped development of new energy technologies. Two scenarios are considered: the first involves the development of the electric power industry in the way of business as usual , while the second takes into account the development of intelligent grids and the Internet of energy (IoE). The results show that the intensive development of renewable energy in combination with the digitalization of electric grids can create the most significant risks for the development of gas energy in Germany and Turkey. In Germany, these risks are determined to a greater extent by the desire of the authorities to maintain the achieved level of energy security, which will inevitably fall with a decrease in coal generation and an increase in the share of gas. In Turkey, these risks are determined by the purely technical and technological development of the country, its dynamics and nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana V. Ratner & Evgenii Yu. Khrustalev & Sergey N. Larin & Oleg E. Khrustalev, 2020. "Does the Development of Renewable Energy and Smart Grids Pose Risks for Russian Gas Projects? Scenario Forecast for Partner Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 286-293.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2020-01-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Valeriy V. Iosifov & Pavel D. Ratner, 2021. "Climate Policies of G20 and New Threats for Russian Energy and Transportation Complex," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 478-486.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    renewable energy; natural gas exports; risk analysis; forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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