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Oil and S&P 500 Markets: Evidence from the Nonlinear Model

Author

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  • Yen-Hsien Lee

    (Department of Finance, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung Pei Road. Chung Li 32023, Taiwan, R.O.C.)

  • Fang Hao

    (Graduate Institute of Assets and Property Management, Hwa Hsia Institute of Technology, Taipei, Taiwan,)

Abstract

This study begins by using a MTAR model to explore the asymmetric effects of error corrections between oil prices in the U.S.A and S&P 500 prices under different regimes. After confirming the lead/lag relationship between the S&P 500 and oil prices, we employ a STECM to analyze the short-run return dynamics when there are deviations from the equilibrium between the two variables. Our empirical evidence shows that an asymmetric co-integration relationship exists between the S&P 500 and oil prices. In addition, the results of the Granger causality test based on the TECM document the unidirectional relationship from the oil price to the S&P 500 price. Moreover, the short-run adjustments of the mean reversion to equilibrium follow the LSTECM. The contribution of this study might be in that the LSTECM-GARCH model is well suited to describing the short-run return dynamics of the disequilibrium between the oil prices and S&P 500 prices in the U.S.A.

Suggested Citation

  • Yen-Hsien Lee & Fang Hao, 2012. "Oil and S&P 500 Markets: Evidence from the Nonlinear Model," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 2(3), pages 272-280.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2012-03-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Federico Mecchia & Marcellino Gaudenzi, 2022. "The dynamics of the prices of the companies of the STOXX Europe 600 Index through the logit model and neural network," Papers 2206.09899, arXiv.org.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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