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Has COVID-19 shifted the US Phillips curve? An ARDL estimation approach

Author

Listed:
  • Luiz Antônio de Lima Junior

    (Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora - Campus GV)

Abstract

The Phillips Curve has been one of the main frameworks used in the literature to analyze the trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the USA since the 1960s. However, there is limited literature on the post-pandemic period. This study estimates the Phillips Curve on a monthly basis from 1982 to December 2024, using the ARDL approach. The primary focus of this work is to examine the behavior of the curve during the pandemic period. The main finding is that the slope of the Phillips curve significantly increased in the USA between 2021 and 2024.

Suggested Citation

  • Luiz Antônio de Lima Junior, 2025. "Has COVID-19 shifted the US Phillips curve? An ARDL estimation approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(4), pages 1980-1988.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-25-00028
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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