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Lessons from the application of the Instrumental Variable (IV) research design to sudden immigration shocks

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  • Maria Noelia Romero

    (Universidad de San Andres, Centro de Estudios para el Desarrollo Humano (CEDH))

Abstract

The Instrumental Variable (IV) approach is commonly used to solve the endogeneity of migrants' decisions on where to locate. Using the Venezuelan migration shock to Peru between 2016 and 2018 as an example, I compare the first-stage estimates of different shift-share instruments commonly used in the IV approach. I show that in this example a sudden migration shock cannot be predicted by past migration simply because past migration is little or insignificant. In a globalized world, when there is no historical previous influx of migrants to the destination location and mass migration, I encourage contributors to the migration literature to report detailed statistical analyses of the first stage using the instrumental variable approach or pursue other identification strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Noelia Romero, 2024. "Lessons from the application of the Instrumental Variable (IV) research design to sudden immigration shocks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(4), pages 1528-1544.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-24-00161
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ran Abramitzky & Leah Platt Boustan & Katherine Eriksson, 2014. "A Nation of Immigrants: Assimilation and Economic Outcomes in the Age of Mass Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(3), pages 467-506.
    2. Becker, Sascha O. & Ferrara, Andreas, 2019. "Consequences of forced migration: A survey of recent findings," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-16.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Instrumental Variable; shift-share; immigration.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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