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“Oh dear! Oh dear! I shall be too late!†Popularity Gains as an Incentive to Legislate Frantically?


  • Mamadou Boukari

    () (LEM (UMR 9221, Université de Lille et CNRS))

  • Etienne Farvaque

    () (LEM (UMR 9221, Université de Lille et CNRS) et Cirano (Québec, Canada))

  • Daniel Cakpo-Tozo

    () (KPMG)


The paper analyzes the relations between the legal and regulatory production and the gains of popularity for the President and the Prime Minister in France. Using the GMM system estimation, we show that the Executive's popularity depends on legisla- tive activism, creating reasons to legislate frantically, but also that the Executive has strong incentives to strategically set the legislative agenda, possibly timing landmark laws during honeymoon periods. Moreover, if Prime Ministers can benefit actions taken in the last months of their term, this is not true for Presidents. Our results also confirm the traditional view, according to which incumbents are always bestowed with favorable ratings when the economic situation improves.

Suggested Citation

  • Mamadou Boukari & Etienne Farvaque & Daniel Cakpo-Tozo, 2019. "“Oh dear! Oh dear! I shall be too late!†Popularity Gains as an Incentive to Legislate Frantically?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1488-1507.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-18-00767

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Francesco Lagona & Fabio Padovano, 2008. "The political legislation cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 201-229, March.
    2. Fabio Padovano & Nicolas Gavoille, 2017. "Legislative Cycles in a Semipresidential System," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 173(3), pages 470-497, September.
    3. Fabian Gouret & Stéphane Rossignol, 2019. "Intensity valence," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 53(1), pages 63-112, June.
      • Fabian Gouret & Stéphane Rossignol, 2016. "Intensity valence," THEMA Working Papers 2016-07, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    4. Antoine Auberger, 2011. "Popularity Functions for the French President and Prime Minister (1995-2007)," Working Papers halshs-00872313, HAL.
    5. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. "The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-245, June.
    6. Josef Brechler & Adam Geršl, 2014. "Political legislation cycle in the Czech Republic," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 137-153, June.
    7. Elena Manzoni & Stefan P. Penczynski, 2018. "Last Minute Policies and the Incumbency Advantage," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 19(3), pages 280-308, August.
    8. Gerald T. Fox, 2009. "Partisan Divide on War and the Economy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(6), pages 905-933, December.
    9. James Rogers, 2005. "The Impact of Divided Government on Legislative Production," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 217-233, April.
    10. Aidt, Toke S. & Dutta, Jayasri, 2007. "Policy myopia and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 734-753, September.
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    More about this item


    Legal production; Regulation; Semi-presidential government system; Popularity; France;

    JEL classification:

    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior


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