IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/aeinde/v9y2009i1_5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multivariate methods in examining macroeconomic variables effect on Greek stock market returns, 1997-2004

Author

Listed:
  • Michailidis, G.

Abstract

The ability to identify which factors best capture systematic return co-variation is central to applications of multifactor pricing models. In the framework of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), this paper estimates the set of factors that influence Greek stock market returns. The estimation procedure follows both the classic APT and the identification of the factors outliers through factor analysis. Using eight years of data from 1997 to 2004, the examined period is split in two sub-periods, prior and after the entrance of Greece to the European Monetary Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Michailidis, G., 2009. "Multivariate methods in examining macroeconomic variables effect on Greek stock market returns, 1997-2004," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:9:y:2009:i:1_5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/aeid915.pdf
    Download Restriction: No.
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1988. "Margin requirements and stock market volatility," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Sum), pages 80-89.
    2. Trzcinka, Charles A, 1986. "On the Number of Factors in the Arbitrage Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 347-368, June.
    3. Dybvig, Philip H., 1983. "An explicit bound on individual assets' deviations from APT pricing in a finite economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 483-496, December.
    4. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1993. "A Test for the Number of Factors in an Approximate Factor Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1263-1291, September.
    6. Geweke, John & Zhou, Guofu, 1996. "Measuring the Pricing Error of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 557-587.
    7. Reisman, Haim, 1992. "Reference Variables, Factor Structure, and the Approximate Multibeta Representation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1303-1314, September.
    8. Khan, M. Ali & Sun, Yeneng, 2003. "Exact arbitrage, well-diversified portfolios and asset pricing in large markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 337-373, June.
    9. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 1998. "Macroeconomic news and bond market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 315-337, March.
    10. Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. "An Empirical Investigation of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1103, December.
    11. Gultekin, Mustafa N & Gultekin, N Bulent, 1987. "Stock Return Anomalies and the Tests of the APT," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(5), pages 1213-1224, December.
    12. Mitchell, Mark L & Mulherin, J Harold, 1994. "The Impact of Public Information on the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 923-950, July.
    13. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1983. "The Reaction of Stock Prices to Unanticipated Changes in Money: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1323-1333, September.
    14. Chen, Su-Jane & Jordan, Bradford D., 1993. "Some empirical tests in the arbitrage pricing theory: Macro variables vs. derived factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-89, February.
    15. Lehmann, Bruce N. & Modest, David M., 1988. "The empirical foundations of the arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 213-254, September.
    16. Ashok Robin & Ravi Shukla, 1991. "The Magnitude Of Pricing Errors In The Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 14(1), pages 65-82, March.
    17. Long, John Jr., 1974. "Stock prices, inflation, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 131-170, July.
    18. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    19. He, Jia & Ng, Lilian K, 1994. "Economic Forces, Fundamental Variables, and Equity Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 599-609, October.
    20. Brown, Stephen J, 1989. " The Number of Factors in Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1247-1262, December.
    21. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March.
    22. Khan, M. Ali & Sun, Yeneng, 2001. "Asymptotic Arbitrage and the APT with or without Measure-Theoretic Structures," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 222-251, November.
    23. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1983. "Factor pricing in a finite economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 497-507, December.
    24. Robert A. Pari & Son-Nan Chen, 1984. "An Empirical Test Of The Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 7(2), pages 121-130, June.
    25. Brown, Stephen J & Weinstein, Mark I, 1983. "A New Approach to Testing Asset Pricing Models: The Bilinear Paradigm," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 711-743, June.
    26. Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1995. "The Short-Run Dynamics of the Price Adjustment to New Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 117-134, March.
    27. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    28. Shanken, Jay, 1982. "The Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Is It Testable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1129-1140, December.
    29. Hamao, Yasushi, 1988. "An empirical examination of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory : Using Japanese data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 45-61, October.
    30. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
    31. Harvey, Campbell R & Huang, Roger D, 1991. "Volatility in the Foreign Currency Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 543-569.
    32. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-1304, September.
    33. Connor, Gregory, 1984. "A unified beta pricing theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 13-31, October.
    34. Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "Money Supply Announcements and Interest Rates: Another View," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-23, January.
    35. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-1152, September.
    36. Engle, Robert F, 1998. "Macroeconomic Announcements and Volatility of Treasury Futures," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt7rd4g3bk, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    37. Chen, Nai-fu, 1983. "Some Empirical Tests of the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1393-1414, December.
    38. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1973. "Estimating the Dependence Structure of Share Prices-Implications for Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(5), pages 1203-1232, December.
    39. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September.
    40. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    41. GUISAN, Maria-Carmen, 2008. "Rates, Ratios And Per Capita Variables In International Models: Analysis Of Investment And Foreign Trade In Oecd Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(2).
    42. Urich, Thomas & Wachtel, Paul, 1981. "Market Response to the Weekly Money Supply Announcements in the 1970s," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1063-1072, December.
    43. Jones, Christopher S., 2001. "Extracting factors from heteroskedastic asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 293-325, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rangan GUPTA & Roula INGLESI-LOTZ, 2012. "Macro Shocks and Real US Stock Prices with Special Focus on the “Great Recession”," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(2).
    2. Faruque, Muhammad U, 2011. "An empirical investigation of the arbitrage pricing theory in a frontier stock market: evidence from Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 38675, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Geweke, John & Zhou, Guofu, 1996. "Measuring the Pricing Error of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 557-587.
    2. Erdinc Altay, 2003. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Asset Returns: A Comparative Analysis of the German and the Turkish Stock Markets in an APT Framework," Finance 0307006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Chadwick, Meltem, 2010. "Performance of Bayesian Latent Factor Models in Measuring Pricing Errors," MPRA Paper 79060, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nawalkha, Sanjay K., 1997. "A multibeta representation theorem for linear asset pricing theories," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 357-381, December.
    5. Attiya Y. Javed, 2000. "Alternative Capital Asset Pricing Models: A Review of Theory and Evidence," PIDE-Working Papers 2000:179, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    6. Goyal, Amit & Pérignon, Christophe & Villa, Christophe, 2008. "How common are common return factors across the NYSE and Nasdaq?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 252-271, December.
    7. Gur Huberman & Zhenyu Wang, 2005. "Arbitrage pricing theory," Staff Reports 216, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Huang, Roger D. & Jo, Hoje, 1995. "Data frequency and the number of factors in stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 987-1003, September.
    9. Robert W. Faff, 1993. "A Multivariate Test of an Equilibrium APT with Time Varying Risk Premia in the Australian Equity Market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 17(2), pages 233-258, December.
    10. Seung C. Ahn & Alex R. Horenstein, 2017. "Asset Pricing and Excess Returns over the Market Return," Working Papers 2017-12, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    11. Jones, Christopher S., 2001. "Extracting factors from heteroskedastic asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 293-325, November.
    12. Thierry Vessereau, 2000. "Factor Analysis and Independent Component Analysis in Presence of High Idiosyncratic Risks," CIRANO Working Papers 2000s-46, CIRANO.
    13. Shanken, Jay & Weinstein, Mark I., 2006. "Economic forces and the stock market revisited," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 129-144, March.
    14. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    15. Ouysse, Rachida & Kohn, Robert, 2010. "Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in the arbitrage pricing theory model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 3249-3268, December.
    16. Perez, Marcos & Ahn, Seung Chan, 2007. "GMM Estimation of the Number of Latent Factors," MPRA Paper 4862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    18. Chu Zhang, 2009. "Testing the APT with the Maximum Sharpe Ratio of Extracted Factors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(7), pages 1255-1266, July.
    19. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," NBER Working Papers 1721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Enrique Sentana, 1993. "The econometrics of the stock market II: asset pricing," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 421-444, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CAPM; APT; macroeconomics; returns; beta; factor loadings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:9:y:2009:i:1_5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. Carmen Guisan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.