Bayesian spatial analysis of demographic survey data
In this paper we analyze the spatial patterns of the risk of unprotected sexual intercourse for Italian women during their initial experience with sexual intercourse. We rely on geo-referenced survey data from the Italian Fertility and Family Survey, and we use a Bayesian approach relying on weakly informative prior distributions. Our analyses are based on a logistic regression model with a multilevel structure. The spatial pattern uses an intrinsic Gaussian conditional autoregressive (CAR) error component. The complexity of such a model is best handled within a Bayesian framework, and statistical inference is carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. In contrast with previous analyses based on multilevel model, our approach avoids the restrictive assumption of independence between area effects. This model allows us to borrow strength from neighbors in order to obtain estimates for areas that may, on their own, have inadequate sample sizes. We show that substantial geographical variation exists within Italy (Southern Italy has higher risks of unprotected first-time sexual intercourse). The findings are robust with respect to the specification of the prior distribution. We argue that spatial analysis can give useful insights on unmet reproductive health needs.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul Elliott & Jon Wakefield, 2001. "Disease clusters: should they be investigated, and, if so, when and how?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(1), pages 3-12.
- Julian Besag & Jeremy York & Annie Mollié, 1991. "Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 43(1), pages 1-20, March.
- Poirier, Dale J., 1998. "Revising Beliefs In Nonidentified Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(04), pages 483-509, August.
- Francesco C. Billari & Riccardo Borgoni, 2001. "Spatial profiles in the analysis of event histories: an application to first sexual intercourse in Italy," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-025, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- repec:aph:ajpbhl:2000:90:9:1403-1408_7 is not listed on IDEAS
- Håvard Rue, 2001. "Fast sampling of Gaussian Markov random fields," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 325-338.
- repec:cai:popine:popu_p1997_52n6_1400 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ludwig Fahrmeir & Stefan Lang, 2001. "Bayesian Semiparametric Regression Analysis of Multicategorical Time-Space Data," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 53(1), pages 11-30, March.
- Leonhard Knorr-Held, 1999. "Conditional Prior Proposals in Dynamic Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 26(1), pages 129-144.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:8:y:2003:i:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Editorial Office)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.