Local house prices and first births in Belgium: Subgroup variation by education and migration background

Objective: This study on local housing prices and first-birth hazards in Belgium between 2012 and 2020 addresses three questions: (1) Are changes in local housing prices linked to shifts in first-birth hazards? (2) Do these associations differ by educational attainment and migration background? (3) Can these differences be explained by variation in homeownership rates across these groups? Methods: The study uses linked Belgian census and register data covering the full legally resident population from 2012 to 2020. Municipality fixed effects hazard models are estimated, incorporating controls for calendar time trends both across and within municipalities. Results: Findings show that increases in local house prices are negatively associated with first-birth hazards among young adults aged 18–34. A clear positive educational gradient emerges: individuals with lower educational attainment are more negatively affected by rising housing costs. Migration background also moderates the relationship, though with no consistent pattern across origin groups. While homeownership buffers against the negative link between price increases and first-birth hazards, and in some age groups entails higher birth hazards in times of rising house prices, it does not account for the observed educational or migration-based disparities in the nexus between house prices and the transition to parenthood. Contribution: This study extends the housing–fertility literature by providing new evidence from Belgium, a context with more moderate housing price shifts than some other countries which have received more attention, and by highlighting the role of educational and migration-based differentiation beyond the renter–owner divide.