IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v52y2025i35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Expectations’ predictive power regarding international return and onward migration of immigrants

Author

Listed:
  • Özge Elif Özer

    (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen)

  • Clara Mulder

    (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen)

  • Matthijs Kalmijn

    (Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut (NIDI))

  • Adrien Remund

    (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen)

Abstract

Background: Migration expectations and behaviour are almost exclusively analysed separately in the international migration literature, while the predictive power of migration expectations for migration behaviour has received little attention. Objective: We explore the association between migration expectations and actual emigration, distinguishing between return, onward, and back-and-forth movements, for immigrants in the Netherlands. Methods: Drawing on the Survey of Integration of Migrants 2015 matched with population register data from 2015 to 2020 (N = 4,158), we use descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression to investigate the association between 5-year emigration expectations and actual behaviour for immigrants in the Netherlands. Results: Twenty-seven per cent of immigrants who expected to return to their country of origin within five years did so. Among those who expected to stay, only 4% returned. Around 9% of those with onward migration expectations migrated onward, compared to below 3% for those with other migration expectations. Of those who expected to spend part of their time in their country of origin and part of their time in the Netherlands, 10% returned and 4% moved multiple times. Adjusting for sociodemographic variables, individuals who expected to return were 11 (2.42 coefficient) times more likely to return, while those who expected to migrate onward were 7 (2.06 coefficient) times more likely to do so than those not expecting to migrate. Contribution: This study contributes to migration research by examining the predictive power of immigrants’ migration expectations in the Netherlands. Unlike previous work focused on the intentions and binary outcomes of staying versus leaving, we demonstrate that expectations such as return or onward migration are strong predictors of actual behaviour. By linking survey data with longitudinal register data, we provide an accurate measure of migration outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Özge Elif Özer & Clara Mulder & Matthijs Kalmijn & Adrien Remund, 2025. "Expectations’ predictive power regarding international return and onward migration of immigrants," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 52(35), pages 1111-1122.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:52:y:2025:i:35
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2025.52.35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol52/35/52-35.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2025.52.35?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    return migration; migration intentions; onward migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:52:y:2025:i:35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.