Does aid to migrants in “transit countries” affect their movement intentions? Evidence from Libya

This study examines the effect of humanitarian assistance on the movement intentions of migrants in Libya, a key transit country for irregular migration to Europe via the Central Mediterranean Route. While existing literature primarily focuses on the relationship between development aid and migration in origin–destination dyads, this study addresses the neglected role of transit countries. Using 2019 survey data on migrants in Libya and employing matching methods to mitigate selection bias, we find that humanitarian assistance does not significantly influence migrants’ intentions to migrate onward to Europe. However, the analysis reveals a significant reduction in return intentions to countries of origin, with an estimated effect indicating a relative decrease of up to 59% among aid recipients compared to non-recipients. This study complements existing literature by providing micro-level evidence that underscores the importance of transit countries in the aid-migration relationship. The findings suggest that humanitarian aid provides critical relief, deterring return migration without encouraging onward migration by loosening financial constraints. Policymakers should design aid strategies that reflect the unique dynamics of transit countries, prioritizing humanitarian assistance for its intended purpose of relief rather than as a tool for managing migration flows, where its effectiveness may be limited.