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The distributional impact of COVID-19: Geographic variation in mortality in England

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Breen

    (University of Oxford)

  • John Ermisch

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Background: By their nature, the impact of epidemics on mortality varies geographically, suggesting that the geographical impact of an epidemic implies a social impact. Objective: To examine the association between two measures of the social composition of a local area and age- and sex-standardised Covid-19 and other mortality in the period 1 March to 31 July 2020. The measures are how deprived an area is and what proportion of its population is non-white. Methods: Using spatial autoregressive regression we analyse geographical variation in age- and sex-standardised Covid-19 mortality among English local authorities between 1 March and 31 July 2020 in relation to measures of social composition, and we compare it with mortality from non-Covid sources in the same period, and with all-causes mortality in 2018. Results: Areas with higher social deprivation have a higher Covid-19 mortality rate, but the association is much weaker than between social deprivation and mortality rates more generally. An area’s proportion non-white has a strong positive association with Covid-19 mortality, in contrast to a negative association with 2020 non-Covid and with 2018 mortality. Conclusions: Covid-19 mortality is related to the social composition of areas in different ways than current non-Covid mortality or past mortality. Contribution: The paper provides the first demonstration of the distinct distributional impact of mortality in relation to the Covid-19 virus by the social composition of areas in England.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Breen & John Ermisch, 2021. "The distributional impact of COVID-19: Geographic variation in mortality in England," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(17), pages 397-414.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:44:y:2021:i:17
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2021.44.17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2020. "Learning Epidemiology by Doing: The Empirical Implications of a Spatial SIR Model with Behavioral Responses," MPRA Paper 101059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "JUE insight: Learning epidemiology by doing: The empirical implications of a Spatial-SIR model with behavioral responses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Mikolai, Júlia & Dorey, Peter & Keenan, Katherine & Kulu, Hill, 2023. "Spatial patterns of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 mortality across waves of infection in England, Wales, and Scotland," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    age and sex standardised mortality; COVID-19; geographic variation; distributional impact;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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