IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ddj/fseeai/y2025i2p210-222.html

Unemployment in EU Member States: Evidence on the Influence of Economic and Demographic Factors

Author

Listed:
  • Valentin-Marian Antohi

    (Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, Romania)

  • Costinela Fortea

    (Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, Romania)

  • Monica Laura Zlati

    (Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, Romania)

  • Rohail Hassan

    (Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business (OYAGSB), Universiti Utara Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia & School of Business, VIZJA University, Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

The European Union is marked by economic, social and demographic challenges and understanding the determinants of unemployment becomes important for the formulation of effective and sustainable public policies. The study aims to investigate the influence of the main economic and demographic factors on the unemployment rate in the 27 Member States of the European Union, based on a multiple linear regression model applied on panel data for the period 2012-2023. By integrating variables such as real GDP per capita, government spending on pensions, public investment in fixed capital, fertility, life expectancy and the number of pension recipients, the research explores both the structural dimension of the labor market and the impact of annual shocks on employment. The econometric results show that economic performance has a significant negative impact on unemployment, supporting the hypothesis that increases in GDP per capita contribute to reducing unemployment. It also confirms a negative relationship between the number of retirees and the unemployment rate, suggesting that the withdrawal of the older population from the labor force alleviates the pressure on the labor market. Based on the findings, the study provides recommendations for public policies aimed at strengthening economic growth, smoothing the demographic transition and strengthening institutional capacity to respond to crises. The paper contributes to the literature by taking an integrated approach to the relationship between the economy, demography and employment, providing a valuable comparative perspective for labor market policy-making in the European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentin-Marian Antohi & Costinela Fortea & Monica Laura Zlati & Rohail Hassan, 2025. "Unemployment in EU Member States: Evidence on the Influence of Economic and Demographic Factors," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 210-222.
    • Handle: RePEc:ddj:fseeai:y:2025:i:2:p:210-222
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.35219/eai15840409530
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eia.feaa.ugal.ro/images/eia/2025_2/Antohi_et_al.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.35219/eai15840409530?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alban Asllani & Friedrich Schneider, 2025. "A review of the driving forces of the informal economy and policy measures for mitigation: an analysis of six EU countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(1), pages 310-344, February.
    2. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2023. "Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey," Papers 2311.15458, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    3. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2024. "Causal models for longitudinal and panel data: a survey," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 27(3), pages 1-61.
    4. Ying Feng & David Lagakos & James E Rauch, 2024. "Unemployment and Development," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(658), pages 614-647.
    5. Afonso, António & Blanco-Arana, M. Carmen, 2024. "Does financial inclusion enhance per capita income in the least developed countries?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    6. Ekkehard Ernst & Rossana Merola & Jelena Reljic, 2025. "Fiscal Policy Instruments for Inclusive Labor Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 2020-2041, December.
    7. Aitken, Andrew & Singh, Shruti, 2023. "Time to change? Promoting mobility at older ages to support longer working lives," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    8. Fabra, Natalia & Gutiérrez, Eduardo & Lacuesta, Aitor & Ramos, Roberto, 2024. "Do renewable energy investments create local jobs?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    9. Jim Been & Vincent Bakker & Olaf van Vliet, 2024. "Unemployment and households' food consumption: A cross‐country panel data analysis across OECD countries," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(3), pages 776-811, August.
    10. Bernhard Ebbinghaus & J. Timo Weishaupt, 2022. "Readjusting unemployment protection in Europe: how crises reshape varieties of labour market regimes," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, , vol. 28(2), pages 181-194, May.
    11. Kati Ahonen & Susan Kuivalainen, 2024. "Gender differences in old-age poverty in 14 EU countries: exploring the role of household structure," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 71(3), pages 615-631, September.
    12. repec:imf:imfdep:2025/002 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Rodrigo Barrela & Mr. Pragyan Deb & Gloria Li & Carlo Pizzinelli, 2025. "The Labor Market Decisions of Older Workers in Ageing Economies: Evidence from Spain and the UK," IMF Working Papers 2025/030, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Campos, Nauro F. & Eichenauer, Vera Z. & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2025. "An introduction to the european unemployment problem: Past trajectory, present dilemmas and future policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    15. Nawal Abdalla Adam & Abad Alzuman, 2024. "Effect of per Capita Income, GDP Growth, FDI, Sectoral Composition, and Domestic Credit on Employment Patterns in GCC Countries: GMM and OLS Approaches," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hainmueller, Jens & Marbach, Moritz & Hangartner, Dominik & Harder, Niklas & Vallizadeh, Ehsan, 2025. "Refugee Labor Market Integration at Scale: Evidence from Germany’s Fast-Track Employment Program," SocArXiv px9ew_v2, Center for Open Science.
    2. Ben Deaner & Chen-Wei Hsiang & Andrei Zeleneev, 2025. "Inferring Treatment Effects in Large Panels by Uncovering Latent Similarities," Papers 2503.20769, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    3. Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2025. "Revolutions as structural breaks: the long-term economic and institutional consequences of the 1979 Iranian Revolution," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 273-301, September.
    4. Konstantin Egorov & Vasily Korovkin & Alexey Makarin & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina, 2025. "Trade Sanctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 12341, CESifo.
      • Konstantin Egorov & Vasily Korovkin & Alexey Makarin & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina, 2025. "Trade sanctions," Economics Working Papers 1920, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
      • Egorov, Konstantin & Korovkin, Vasily & Makarin, Alexey & Nigmatulina, Dzhamilya, 2025. "Trade sanctions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2025, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. Federico Crippa, 2025. "Identification, Estimation, and Inference in Two-Sided Interaction Models," Papers 2510.22884, arXiv.org.
    6. Konstantin Egorov & Vasily Korovkin & Alexey Makarin & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina, 2025. "Trade Sanctions," Working Papers 1516, Barcelona School of Economics.
    7. Susan Athey & Guido Imbens, 2025. "Identification of Average Treatment Effects in Nonparametric Panel Models," Papers 2503.19873, arXiv.org.
    8. repec:osf:osfxxx:brhd3_v2 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Germà Bel & Joël Bühler, 2025. "Does It Take More Than One Village? The Effect of Inter-Municipal Cooperation on Waste Separation," IREA Working Papers 202501, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics.
    10. Marco Piccininni & Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen & Mats J. Stensrud, 2025. "Refining the Notion of No Anticipation in Difference-in-Differences Studies," Papers 2507.12891, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    11. Guanhao Zhou & Yuefeng Han & Xiufan Yu, 2025. "Covariate-Adjusted Deep Causal Learning for Heterogeneous Panel Data Models," Papers 2505.20536, arXiv.org.
    12. Alex Flores & Axel Vega, 2025. "APP como innovación en Salud Pública Descongestión de establecimientos de salud en Lima a través de los policlínicos Guillermo Kaelin y Alberto Barton," Working Papers 005, Agencia de Promoción de la Inversión Privada, Unidad de Análisis de Datos, Investigación e Inteligencia Estratégica, revised Mar 2025.
    13. Claire Gavard & Jonas Göbel & Niklas Schoch, 2025. "Local Economic Impacts of Wind Power Deployment in Denmark," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(6), pages 1679-1717, June.
    14. Joxe Mari Barrutiabengoa & Rafael Ortiz Durán, 2025. "España | Impacto del despliegue de energía renovable sobre el empleo en España [Spain | Renewable energy deployment and employment dynamics in Spanish provinces]," Working Papers 25/11, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    15. repec:osf:osfxxx:hakt5_v2 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Roch-Dupré, David & Aracil, Elisa & Calvo-Bascones, Pablo, 2024. "Monitoring socioeconomic readiness for the demographic transition: Introducing the Senior Economy Tracker," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 430-443.
    17. Ruonan Xu & Luther Yap, 2024. "Clustering with Potential Multidimensionality: Inference and Practice," Papers 2411.13372, arXiv.org.
    18. Tomas Berglund & Torsten Müller & Tomas Berglund & Torsten Müller & Tomas Berglund & Torsten Müller, 2022. "Editorial and Introduction," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, , vol. 28(2), pages 157-179, May.
    19. Germeshausen, Robert & Heim, Sven & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2025. "Support for renewable energy: The case of wind power," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    20. Xiao Ma & Alejandro Nakab & Daniela Vidart, 2024. "Human Capital Investment and Development: The Role of On-the-Job Training," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 107-148.
    21. Boonjubun, Chaitawat & Singh, Garima & van Gerven, Minna, 2023. "Social Dialogue in Defence of Vulnerable Groups in Post-COVID-19 Labour Markets. EU-Level Report," SocArXiv qehks, Center for Open Science.
    22. Emara, Noha, 2025. "Threshold effects of financial depth on domestic savings: Evidence from the EMEA region," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1987-2000.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ddj:fseeai:y:2025:i:2:p:210-222. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gianina Mihai (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fegalro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.