IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/itaxpf/v32y2025i1d10.1007_s10797-024-09842-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A review of the driving forces of the informal economy and policy measures for mitigation: an analysis of six EU countries

Author

Listed:
  • Alban Asllani

    (University of East London)

  • Friedrich Schneider

    (Research Institute of Banking and Finance, Johannes Kepler University of Linz)

Abstract

This study presents detailed estimates of the shadow economy's size and development in all European Union (EU) countries with particular emphasis on six specific countries (Germany, Austria, Denmark, Greece, Italy, and Romania) from 2003 to 2022. It focuses on understanding the key factors that motivate economic agents to engage in shadow economy activities within EU and particularly these countries. The estimates presented show a significant reduction in the shadow economy's size from 22.6% of GDP in 2003 to 17.3% in 2022, highlighting the effectiveness of various policy measures implemented in most EU countries with particular focus on these six countries. Despite a slight increase in the shadow economy across most EU nations due to the Coronavirus pandemic after 2020, our research identifies the main determinants of economic informality in most EU countries. Our analysis expose that weak institutional quality, ineffective government institutions, complex and burdensome tax and regulatory systems, the lack of strong legal systems, and pervasive corruption are the main determinants of economic informality in most countries of the EU. The study thoroughly reviews the driving forces behind the shadow economy and discusses the specific policy measures these six countries part of this policy analysis paper have adopted to mitigate and reduce its presence.

Suggested Citation

  • Alban Asllani & Friedrich Schneider, 2025. "A review of the driving forces of the informal economy and policy measures for mitigation: an analysis of six EU countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(1), pages 310-344, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:32:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10797-024-09842-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09842-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10797-024-09842-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10797-024-09842-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Colin C. Williams & Ioana A. Horodnic, 2017. "Evaluating the Illegal Employer Practice of Under-Reporting Employees’ Salaries," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 83-111, March.
    2. Andreas Buehn & Friedrich Schneider, 2012. "Shadow economies around the world: novel insights, accepted knowledge, and new estimates," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(1), pages 139-171, February.
    3. Piotr Dybka & Michał Kowalczuk & Bartosz Olesiński & Andrzej Torój & Marek Rozkrut, 2019. "Currency demand and MIMIC models: towards a structured hybrid method of measuring the shadow economy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(1), pages 4-40, February.
    4. Feige, Edgar L., 2015. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the “Shadow Economy”?," MPRA Paper 68466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Williams Colin C. & Kayaoglu Aysegul, 2020. "The Coronavirus Pandemic and Europe’s Undeclared Economy: Impacts and a Policy Proposal," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 80-92, June.
    6. Georgios L. Vousinas, 2017. "Shadow economy and tax evasion. The Achilles heel of Greek economy. Determinants, effects and policy proposals," Journal of Money Laundering Control, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 20(4), pages 386-404, October.
    7. Leandro Medina & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?," IMF Working Papers 2018/017, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Schneider Friedrich, 2021. "Mehr Licht im Schatten? Neuere Ergebnisse über die Schattenwirtschaft," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 22(3), pages 225-246, September.
    9. Vicent Almenar & José Luis Sánchez & Juan Sapena, 2020. "Measuring the shadow economy and its drivers: the case of peripheral EMU countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 2904-2918, January.
    10. James Alm & Abel Embaye, 2013. "Using Dynamic Panel Methods to Estimate Shadow Economies Around the World, 1984–2006," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(5), pages 510-543, September.
    11. James Alm & Benno Torgler, 2011. "Do Ethics Matter? Tax Compliance and Morality," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 101(4), pages 635-651, July.
    12. James Alm & Abel Embaye, 2013. "Using Dynamic Panel Methods to Estimate Shadow Economies Around the World, 1984-2006," Working Papers 1303, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    13. Gheorghe H. Popescu & Adriana Ana Maria Davidescu & Catalin Huidumac, 2018. "Researching the Main Causes of the Romanian Shadow Economy at the Micro and Macro Levels: Implications for Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-37, September.
    14. Adriana AnaMaria DAVIDESCU (ALEXANDRU), 2014. "Estimating The Size Of Romanian Shadow Economy. A Labour Approach," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 25-37, JULY.
    15. Georgia Kaplanoglou & Vassilis Rapanos, 2013. "Tax and Trust: The Fiscal Crisis in Greece," South European Society and Politics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 283-304.
    16. Stavros Katsios, 2006. "The Shadow Economy and Corruption in Greece," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 4(1), pages 61-80.
    17. Sarsen Zhanabekov, 2022. "Robust determinants of the shadow economy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 1017-1052, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Colin C. Williams, 2023. "A Modern Guide to the Informal Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18668.
    2. João Felix & Michel Alexandre & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2025. "Applying Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict the Size of the Informal Economy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(3), pages 1169-1189, March.
    3. Luc Jacolin & Joseph Keneck Massil & Alphonse Noah, 2021. "Informal sector and mobile financial services in emerging and developing countries: Does financial innovation matter?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2703-2737, September.
    4. Christoforos Andreou & Elena Andreou & Stephanie Michael & George Syrichas, 2021. "The Shadow Economy in Cyprus: Evidence from the Electricity Consumption and Currency Demand Methods," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 15(1), pages 46-74, June.
    5. Dell’Anno, Roberto & Davidescu, Adriana AnaMaria, 2019. "Estimating shadow economy and tax evasion in Romania. A comparison by different estimation approaches," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 130-149.
    6. KOUAKOU, Dorgyles C.M. & YEO, Kolotioloma I.H., 2023. "Can innovation reduce the size of the informal economy? Econometric evidence from 138 countries," MPRA Paper 119264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Joseph Keneck-Massil & Alphonse Noah, 2019. "Shadow economy and educational systems in Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1467-1478.
    8. Friedrich Schneider, 2023. "Do Different Estimation Methods Lead to Implausible Differences in the Size of Nonobserved or Shadow Economies? A Preliminary Answer," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 15(1), pages 257-277, October.
    9. Alvarado, Rafael & Tillaguango, Brayan & López-Sánchez, Michelle & Ponce, Pablo & Işık, Cem, 2021. "Heterogeneous impact of natural resources on income inequality: The role of the shadow economy and human capital index," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 690-704.
    10. Friedrich Schneider, 2022. "New COVID-related results for estimating the shadow economy in the global economy in 2021 and 2022," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 299-313, May.
    11. Bennihi, Aymen Salah & Bouriche, Lahcene & Schneider, Friedrich, 2021. "The informal economy in Algeria: New insights using the MIMIC approach and the interaction with the formal economy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 470-491.
    12. Cong Minh Huynh & Tan Loi Nguyen, 2020. "Fiscal policy and shadow economy in Asian developing countries: does corruption matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1745-1761, October.
    13. Hajilee, Massomeh & Stringer, Donna Y. & Hayes, Linda A., 2021. "On the link between the shadow economy and stock market development: An asymmetry analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 303-316.
    14. Leandro Medina & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy: A Global Database and the Interaction with the Official One," CESifo Working Paper Series 7981, CESifo.
    15. Elbahnasawy, Nasr G., 2021. "Can e-government limit the scope of the informal economy?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    16. Ahmad, Waqar & Hussain, Babar, 2023. "Fiscal Policy Effects on Shadow Economy: Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 30(2), July.
    17. Phoebe W. Ishak & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2022. "Oil price shocks, protest, and the shadow economy: Is there a mitigation effect?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 298-321, July.
    18. Stephen Esaku, 2022. "Institutionalized democracy and the shadow economy in the short- and long-run: empirical analysis from Uganda," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    19. Elbahnasawy, Nasr G. & Ellis, Michael A., 2022. "Inflation and the Structure of Economic and Political Systems," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 59-74.
    20. Arzhenovskiy, Sergey, 2023. "Estimate of shadow economy dynamics in Russia and regions: The inflationary aspect," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 69, pages 121-140.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informal economy; MIMIC model; Balkan countries; Main drivers of the IE; Effect of the COVID-19 on IE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:32:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10797-024-09842-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.