IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/macdyn/v20y2016i06p1623-1639_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Note On The Bush Tax Cuts: Did They Succeed In Stimulating Business Investment?

Author

Listed:
  • Yuhn, Ky-hyang
  • Bennett, Christopher S.

Abstract

Traditional regression models have reported conflicting results on the effectiveness of tax incentives in stimulating business investment. This study investigates the effects of the Bush tax cuts on U.S. investment using intervention analysis in conjunction with regression analysis that controls for relevant variables. Although intervention analysis has the advantage of allowing the behavior of investment to be influenced only by the time path of exogenous shocks such as tax reforms, control variables can test for the robustness of the results. We have found that the two tax reforms enacted in 2001 and 2003 had little impact on marginal investment incentives. The intervention analysis results are further reinforced by the evidence provided by alternative regression models that control for a host of variables. The failure of the tax reforms to stimulate investment spending may be attributable to several factors, such as a global savings glut, cheap global money, inappropriate designs for tax incentives, and budget deficits.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuhn, Ky-hyang & Bennett, Christopher S., 2016. "A Note On The Bush Tax Cuts: Did They Succeed In Stimulating Business Investment?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1623-1639, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:20:y:2016:i:06:p:1623-1639_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1365100514000935/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-393, July.
    2. Widmalm, Frida, 2001. "Tax Structure and Growth: Are Some Taxes Better Than Others?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 107(3-4), pages 199-219, June.
    3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    4. Eisner, Robert & Lawler, Patrick J, 1975. "Tax Policy and Investment: An Analysis of Survey Responses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(1), pages 206-212, March.
    5. Bizer, David S & Judd, Kenneth L, 1989. "Taxation and Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 331-336, May.
    6. Atkinson, Anthony B., 1995. "The Welfare State and Economic Performance," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 48(2), pages 171-98, June.
    7. Guo, Jang-Ting & Krause, Alan, 2014. "Optimal Dynamic Nonlinear Income Taxation Under Loose Commitment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(6), pages 1403-1427, September.
    8. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    9. Brimmer, Andrew F & Sinai, Allen, 1976. "The Effects of Tax Policy on Capital Formation, Corporate Liquidity and the Availability of Investible Funds: A Simulation Study," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 287-308, May.
    10. Boskin, Michael J, 1988. "Tax Policy and Economic Growth: Lessons from the 1980s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 71-97, Fall.
    11. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and Investment: Some Econometric Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 243-286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Robert Eisner, 1978. "Factors in Business Investment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number eisn78-1, March.
    13. Auerbach, Alan J. & Hassett, Kevin, 1992. "Tax policy and business fixed investment in the United States," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 141-170, March.
    14. Arbex, Marcelo, 2013. "A Quantitative Analysis Of Tax Enforcement And Optimal Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(5), pages 1096-1117, July.
    15. Carroll, Robert & Hassett, Kevin A. & Mackie, James B. III, 2003. "The Effect of Dividend Tax Relief on Investment Incentives," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 56(3), pages 629-651, September.
    16. Santoro, Marika & Wei, Chao, 2012. "A Note On The Impact Of Progressive Dividend Taxation On Investment Decisions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 309-319, April.
    17. Jorgenson, Dale W, 1971. "Econometric Studies of Investment Behavior: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1111-1147, December.
    18. Atkinson, Anthony B., 1995. "The Welfare State and Economic Performance," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 48(2), pages 171-198, June.
    19. Agell, Jonas & Lindh, Thomas & Ohlsson, Henry, 1997. "Growth and the public sector: A critical review essay," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 33-52, February.
    20. Eric M. Engen & Jonathan Skinner, 1992. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Hulten, Charles R, 1984. "Tax Policy and the Investment Decision," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 236-241, May.
    22. Robert Corker & Owen Evans & Lloyd Kenward, 1989. "Tax Policy and Business Investment in the United States: Evidence from the 1980s," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 31-62, March.
    23. Sandmo, Agnar, 1974. "Investment Incentives and the Corporate Income Tax," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 287-302, Part I, M.
    24. Robert Eisner, 1978. "Introduction to "Factors in Business Investment"," NBER Chapters, in: Factors in Business Investment, pages 1-16, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    26. Sinai, Allen & Eckstein, Otto, 1983. "Tax policy and business fixed investment revisited," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 131-162.
    27. Auerbach, Alan J, 1987. "The Tax Reform Act of 1986 and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 73-86, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2001. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1501-1520, August.
    2. Engen, Eric M. & Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "Taxation and Economic Growth," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(4), pages 617-642, December.
    3. Joel Slemrod, 1995. "What Do Cross-Country Studies Teach about Government Involvement, Prosperity, and Economic Growth?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 373-431.
    4. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1999. "Growth and the public sector: a critique of the critics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 337-358, June.
    5. Agell, Jonas & Lindh, Thomas & Ohlsson, Henry, 1999. "Growth and the public sector: A reply," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 359-366, June.
    6. Jacques Mairesse & Alan K. Siu, 1984. "An Extended Accelerator Model of R&D and Physical Investment," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 271-298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sumru Altug & Fanny S. Demers & Michel Demers, 2004. "Tax Policy and Irreversible Investment," CDMA Working Paper Series 200404, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    8. Agell, Jonas & Lindh, Thomas & Ohlsson, Henry, 1997. "Growth and the public sector: A critical review essay," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 33-52, February.
    9. Diego Romero‐Avila, 2006. "Fiscal Policies And Output In The Long Run: A Panel Cointegration Approach Applied To The Oecd," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(3), pages 360-388, June.
    10. Yaya KEHO, 2011. "Tax Structure and Economic Growth in Cote dIvoire: Are Some Taxes Better Than Others?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(4), pages 226-235, December.
    11. Abel, Andrew B., 1990. "Consumption and investment," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 725-778, Elsevier.
    12. Christoph Schaltegger & Benno Torgler, 2006. "Growth effects of public expenditure on the state and local level: evidence from a sample of rich governments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1181-1192.
    13. Palle S. Andersen, 1987. "Profit shares, investment and output capacity," BIS Working Papers 12, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Diego Enrique Pinilla Rodríguez & Juan de Dios Jiménez Aguilera & Roberto Montero Granados, 2013. "Gasto público y crecimiento económico. Un estudio empírico para América Latina," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, May.
    15. Agell, Jonas, 1996. "Why Sweden's Welfare State Needed Reform," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1760-1771, November.
    16. Jacques Mairesse & Bronwyn H. Hall & Benoît Mulkay, 1999. "Firm-Level Investment in France and the United States: An Exploration of What We Have Learned in Twenty Years," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 55-56, pages 27-67.
    17. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    18. Altug, Sumru & Demers, Fanny S. & Demers, Michel, 2009. "The investment tax credit and irreversible investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 509-522, December.
    19. Luis Alvarez & Vesa Kanniainen & Jan Södersten, 1999. "Why is the Corporation Tax Not Neutral?. Anticipated Tax Reform, Investment Spurts and Corporate Borrowing," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 56(3/4), pages 285-285, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:20:y:2016:i:06:p:1623-1639_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/mdy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.