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On the financial sustainability of earnings-related pension schemes with ‘pay-as-you-go’ financing and the role of government-indexed bonds

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  • ROBALINO, DAVID A.
  • BODOR, ANDRÁS

Abstract

In this paper we reconsider the idea of an earnings-related pension system with reserves invested in indexed government bonds as a mechanism to both ensure financial sustainability and improve security. The paper starts by reviewing the characterization of the sustainable rate of return of an earnings-related pension system with pay-as-you-go financing. We show that current proxies for the sustainable rate, including the Swedish ‘gyroscope’, are not stable and propose an alternative measure that depends on the growth of the buffer-stock and the pay-as-you-go asset. Using a simple one-sector macroeconomic model that embeds a notional account pension system we then show how GDP-indexed government bonds, if combined with the right measure for the sustainable rate of return on contributions, could be used to generate a sustainable and secure earnings-related pension system, without becoming a fiscal burden. The proposal is particularly attractive for countries considering reforms to earnings-related systems that have accumulated a large implicit pension debt. In this case, the government bonds allow the financing of this debt in a transparent way. The proposed mechanism can also facilitate the transition to a fully funded pension system when the government bonds are allowed to be traded.

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  • Robalino, David A. & Bodor, András, 2009. "On the financial sustainability of earnings-related pension schemes with ‘pay-as-you-go’ financing and the role of government-indexed bonds," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 153-187, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:8:y:2009:i:02:p:153-187_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robalino, David & Tatyana, Bogomolova, 2006. "lmplicit Pension Debt in the Middle-East and North Africa Magnitude and Fiscal lmplications," MPRA Paper 12019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. David Robalino, 2005. "Pensions in the Middle East and North Africa: Time for Change," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7427.
    3. Robert Holzmann & Robert Palacios & Asta Zviniene, 2001. "On the Economics and Scope of Implicit Pension Debt: An International Perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 97-129, March.
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    1. Eduardo Fajnzylber & David Robalino, 2010. "Assessing Fiscal Costs and the Distribution of Pensions in Transitions to FDC and NDC Systems: A Retrospective Analysis for Chile," Working Papers wp_005, Adolfo Ibáñez University, School of Government.
    2. Robalino, David & Vodopivec, Milan & Bodor, Andras, 2009. "Savings for unemployment in good or bad times : options for developing countries," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 50320, The World Bank.
    3. Robert Holzmann & Johannes Koettl, 2015. "Portability of Pension, Health, and Other Social Benefits: Facts, Concepts, and Issues," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 61(2), pages 377-415.
    4. Boado-Penas, M. Carmen & Eisenberg, Julia & Korn, Ralf, 2021. "Transforming public pensions: A mixed scheme with a credit granted by the state," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 140-152.
    5. Carlo Mazzaferro, 2018. "Is the Italian NDC pension system really sustainable?Parameters’ design and consistency," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0164, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    6. Wang, Lijian & Béland, Daniel & Zhang, Sifeng, 2014. "Pension financing in China: Is there a looming crisis?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 143-154.
    7. Riccardo Magnani, 2018. "What's gone wrong in the design of PAYG systems?," CEPN Working Papers hal-01966571, HAL.
    8. Wang, Lijian, 2016. "Actuarial model and its application for implicit pension debt in China," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 224-227.
    9. Palmer, Edward, 2011. "Generic NDC - Equilibrium, Valuation and Risk Sharing with and without NDC Bonds," Working Paper Series 2011:3, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    10. Riccardo Magnani, 2018. "What's gone wrong in the design of PAYG systems?," CEPN Working Papers 2018-13, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    11. Simonovits, András & Gál, Róbert Iván, 2012. "A magyar nyugdíjrendszer éves hozamrátái [Annual rates of return in the Hungarian pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 963-987.
    12. Alfonso R. Sánchez, 2014. "The automatic adjustment of pension expenditures in Spain:an evaluation of the 2013 pension reform," Working Papers 1420, Banco de España.
    13. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2011. "Population Aging and the Generational Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13816.
    14. Holzmann, Robert & Koettl, Johannes, 2011. "Portability of pension, health, and other social benefits : facts, concepts, issues," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 62725, The World Bank.
    15. Holzmann, Robert & Jousten, Alain, 2010. "Addressing the Legacy Costs in an NDC Reform: Conceptualization, Measurement, Financing," IZA Discussion Papers 5296, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Róbert I Gál & Vera Gergely & Márton Medgyesi, 2011. "National Transfer Accounts in Hungary: contribution asset and returns in a pay-as-you-go pension," Chapters, in: Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging and the Generational Economy, chapter 32, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. M. Carmen Boado-Penas & Julia Eisenberg & Ralf Korn, 2019. "Transforming public pensions: A mixed scheme with a credit granted by the state," Papers 1912.12329, arXiv.org.

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