lmplicit Pension Debt in the Middle-East and North Africa Magnitude and Fiscal lmplications
This paper breaks down the contingent liability of a mandatory pension system into two components: the implicit pension debt and the pay-as-you-go asset. It then estimates these two components for 12 pension schemes across six MENA countries and presents international comparisons. The results show that implicit pension debts are large (in the order of 50% to 100% of GDP), often higher than the explicit public debt. At the same time, the large majority of pension schemes have negative pay-as-you-go assets. Under these circumstances, it is misleading to consider the implicit pension debt a contingency, as the government will have to finance it with almost certainty. In the absence of a default the fiscal impacts are expected to be large. The paper recommends including in the assessment of public debt sustainability the implicit liabilities of the mandatory pension system and the pay-as-you-go asset.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003.
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
- Robalino, David & Whitehouse, Edward & Mataoanu, Anca & Musalem, Alberto & Sherwood, Elisabeth & Sluchynsky, Oleksiy, 2005.
"Pensions in the Middle East and North Africa: time for change,"
10448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- David Robalino, 2005. "Pensions in the Middle East and North Africa: Time for Change," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7427, June.
- Holzmann, Robert & Palacios, Robert & Zviniene, Asta, 2004. "Implicit pension debt: issues, measurement and scope in international perspective," Social Protection Discussion Papers 30153, The World Bank.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521790956 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.