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Bias in Regressions With a Lagged Dependent Variable


  • Grubb, David
  • Symons, James


We give an expression to order O( T -1 ), where T is the sample size, for bias to the estimated coefficient on a lagged dependent variable when all other regressors are exogenous. The general expression is a nonlinear function of the coefficient on the lagged dependent variable, the autoregressive structure of the exogenous variables, and the coefficients on the exogenous variables. The maximum bias that can arise is a linear function of the number of exogenous regressors in the estimating equation.

Suggested Citation

  • Grubb, David & Symons, James, 1987. "Bias in Regressions With a Lagged Dependent Variable," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(03), pages 371-386, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:3:y:1987:i:03:p:371-386_01

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1985. "Random Cell Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests for Econometric Models: I. Introduction and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 762, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Hausman, Jerry A. & Taylor, William E., 1981. "A generalized specification test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 239-245.
    3. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1985. "Random Cell Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests for Econometric Models: II. Theory," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 763R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 1986.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tanizaki, Hisashi, 2000. "Bias correction of OLSE in the regression model with lagged dependent variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 495-511, October.
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 183-217.
    3. Kiviet, Jan F. & Phillips, Garry D.A., 2014. "Improved variance estimation of maximum likelihood estimators in stable first-order dynamic regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-448.
    4. Aman Ullah & Yong Bao & Ru Zhang, 2014. "Moment Approximation for Unit Root Models with Nonnormal Errors," Working Papers 201401, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    5. Adriana Di Liberto & James Symons, 2003. "Some Econometric Issues in Convergence Regressions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 293-307, June.
    6. Manfred W. Keil & Donald Robertson & James Symons, 2001. "Minimum Wages and Employment," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2001-08, Claremont Colleges.
    7. Kiviet, Jan F. & Phillips, Garry D.A., 2012. "Higher-order asymptotic expansions of the least-squares estimation bias in first-order dynamic regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3705-3729.
    8. Hisashi Tanizaki & Shigeyuki Hamori & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2006. "On least-squares bias in the AR(p) models: Bias correction using the bootstrap methods," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 109-124, January.
    9. patel, saurin & sarkissian, sergei, 2012. "To Group or Not to Group? Evidence from Mutual Funds," MPRA Paper 38496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Noriega, Antonio E. & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2009. "The dynamics of persistence in US inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 168-172, November.
    11. Bao, Yong & Ullah, Aman, 2007. "The second-order bias and mean squared error of estimators in time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 650-669, October.
    12. Jan F. Kiviet & Garry D. A. Phillips, 2000. "Improved Coefficient and Variance Estimation in Stable First-Order Dynamic Regression Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0631, Econometric Society.
    13. Kiviet, Jan F. & Phillips, Garry D. A. & Schipp, Bernhard, 1999. "Alternative bias approximations in first-order dynamic reduced form models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 909-928, June.
    14. van Giersbergen, Noud P.A., 2016. "The ability to correct the bias in the stable AD(1,1) model with a feedback effect," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 186-204.

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