IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000425/008585.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Credit Ratings in the Presence of Bailout: The Case of Mexican Subnational Government Debt

Author

Listed:
  • Fausto Hernández-Trillo

    ()

  • Ricardo Smith-Ramírez

    ()

Abstract

Searching for an explanation for investment grades assigned to virtually bankrupt subnational governments in LDCs, we study the determinants of bond ratings for municipalities in Mexico. Our data set includes ratings from three agencies: S&P, Fitch, and Moody´s. To control for selectivity in the process of choosing an agency, we model the problem as a tri-variate selfselection process with ordinal responses. Additionally, in order to circumvent the estimation of multidimensional integrals, we implement a Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization (MCEM) algorithm. We find that not only financial but also political factors, such as number of voters and political party in power, are important and show evidence that the probability of bailout has a heavy weight in the rating process. Our outcomes question the purpose of rating sub-national debt in LDCs with a bailout tradition, since in those cases the market may assess the risk of subnational entities as that of sovereign instruments.

Suggested Citation

  • Fausto Hernández-Trillo & Ricardo Smith-Ramírez, 2009. "Credit Ratings in the Presence of Bailout: The Case of Mexican Subnational Government Debt," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2009), pages 45-79, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000425:008585
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economia.lacea.org/contents.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A., 1993. "Smooth unbiased multivariate probability simulators for maximum likelihood estimation of limited dependent variable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 347-368.
    2. Eli M. Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2008. "A ratings-based approach to measuring sovereign risk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 26-39.
    3. Millon, Marcia H & Thakor, Anjan V, 1985. " Moral Hazard and Information Sharing: A Model of Financial Information Gathering Agencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1403-1422, December.
    4. Moon, Choon-Geol & Stotsky, Janet G, 1993. "Testing the Differences between the Determinants of Moody's and Standard & Poor's Ratings: An Application of Smooth Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 51-69, Jan.-Marc.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    6. Keane, Michael P, 1992. "A Note on Identification in the Multinomial Probit Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 193-200, April.
    7. Natarajan, Ranjini & McCulloch, Charles E. & Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2000. "A Monte Carlo EM method for estimating multinomial probit models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 33-50, July.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    9. Carleton, Willard T & Lerner, Eugene M, 1969. "Statistical Credit Scoring of Municipal Bonds," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(4), pages 750-764, November.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "An Introduction," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 149-150, August.
    11. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Ratings; Bailout; Subnational Governments; Debt;

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000425:008585. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roberto Bernal). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.