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Factores socioeconómicos y demográficos de distintas categorías de delitos en Colombia. Prueba desde un panel de datos de las regiones de Colombia

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  • Alejandro Mancera

Abstract

This investigation is based in the model of crime of Becker-Ehrlich with explanatory variables that impact the crime rate like: the deterrence variable or rate of efficiency of the Police, that it was built as the reason of the number of captures and the number of accusations in same period, proxy variables for legal and illegal income, socioeconomic and demographic variables that are related with the crime according to the literature and with variables that are generated by the internal armed conflict, such as density of inhabitants displaced and density of cultivations of coca. The study was carried out by means of a panel of data with fixed effects for five geographical regions of Colombia in the period of 2001-2006.The results indicate that an increase in the rate of efficiency of the Police diminishes the incentives to be involved in the crimes of subversive actions, extortion, rape and traffic, production or carry of narcotics. The opportunities of legal and illegal income, the poverty and the forced displacement affect the homicide crimes, kidnapping and terrorism. The index of the rate of unemployment was significant and with positive sign in the crimes that are committed in their great majority by the armed groups: kidnapping and terrorism and the index of poverty and forced displacement was significant and with negative sign in the violation crime. Finally, the population density affects the crimes of subversive actions and terrorism.Esta investigación se basa en el modelo de la economía del crimen de Becker-Ehrlich con variables explicativas que inciden en la criminalidad, como: la variable de disuasión o tasa de eficiencia de la Policía, que se construyó como la razón del número de capturas y el número de denuncias en un mismo período, las oportunidades de ingreso legal e ilegal, variables socioeconómicas y demográficas que según la literatura están relacionadas con el crimen y con variables que son generadas por el conflicto armado interno, como la tasa de habitantes desplazados por departamento de llegada y densidad de cultivos de coca. El estudio se realizó por medio de un panel de datos con efectos fijos para las cinco regiones geográficas de Colombia en el período 2001-2006.Los resultados indican que un aumento en la tasa de eficiencia de la Policía disminuye los incentivos para involucrarse en los delitos de acciones subversivas, extorsión, violación y tráfico, fabricación o porte de estupefacientes. Las oportunidades de ingreso legal e ilegal, la pobreza y el desplazamiento forzado afectan los delitos de homicidio, secuestro y terrorismo. El índice de la tasa de desempleo resultó significativo y con signo positivo en los delitos que son cometidos en su gran mayoría por los grupos armados: secuestro y terrorismo y el índice de pobreza y desplazamiento forzado fue significativo y con signo negativo en el delito de violación. Finalmente, la densidad poblacional impacta los delitos de acciones subversivas y terrorismo.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Mancera, 2008. "Factores socioeconómicos y demográficos de distintas categorías de delitos en Colombia. Prueba desde un panel de datos de las regiones de Colombia," Revista de Economía del Caribe, Universidad del Norte, vol. 0(0), pages 1-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000382:007112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Armando Montenegro & Carlos Esteban Posada, 1995. "Criminalidad en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo.
    2. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. Fabio SANCHEZ TORRES & Ana Mar�a DIAZ & Michel FORNISANO, 2003. "Conflicto, violencia y actividad criminal en Colombia: Un análisis espacial," Archivos de Economía 2185, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
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    JEL classification:

    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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