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Requisitos Para La Estabilidad Fiscal: Un Balance Y La Agenda

  • SERGIO CLAVIJO VERGARA

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    En este documento se pasa revista a la situación fiscal y la fuente de sus desequilibrios. Se cotejan las necesidades de ahorro primario con las futuras cargas que representan las deudas contingentes provenientes de las garantías públicas y, principalmente, las obligaciones pensionales, equivalentes a gastos adicionales por cerca de 1% del producto interno bruto (PIB) en cada año. La conclusión fundamental es que el país requiere continuar avanzando en sus reformas estructurales de segunda generación, de tal manera que se consolide la meta de superávit primarios del 3% del PIB. Sin embargo, hay menos optimismo sobre sus efectos de disminución rápida del nivel de endeudamiento, debido a la carga que ejercerán estas deudas contingentes. En efecto, el alivio en el esfuerzo fiscal que provee las mejores perspectivas de crecimiento económico (4% anual) y las menores tasas de interés, tenderá a ser compensado por estas mayores cargas no incluidas en la relación deuda pública explícita / PIB.

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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ensayos/pdf/espe_046-3.pdf
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    Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

    Volume (Year): 22 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 46-1 (December)
    Pages: 146-185

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    Handle: RePEc:col:000107:003456
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    1. Parthasarathi Shome, 1992. "Trends and Future Directions in Tax Policy Reform; A Latin American Perspective," IMF Working Papers 92/43, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    3. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Financing vs. Forgiving a Debt Overhang," NBER Working Papers 2486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Meijdam, Lex & van de Ven, Martijn & Verbon, Harrie A. A., 1996. "The dynamics of government debt," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 67-90, April.
    5. Cardona Bermeo, Jorge Enrique, et al, 2002. "Manejo de pasivos contingentes en el marco de la disciplina fiscal en Colombia," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34872, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Helene Poirson Ward & Luca A Ricci & Catherine A Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 04/15, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Leonardo Villar Gómez, 2004. "Inflación Y Finanzas Públicas," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 22(47), pages 56-105, December.
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