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Requisitos Para La Estabilidad Fiscal: Un Balance Y La Agenda

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  • SERGIO CLAVIJO VERGARA

    ()

Abstract

En este documento se pasa revista a la situación fiscal y la fuente de sus desequilibrios. Se cotejan las necesidades de ahorro primario con las futuras cargas que representan las deudas contingentes provenientes de las garantías públicas y, principalmente, las obligaciones pensionales, equivalentes a gastos adicionales por cerca de 1% del producto interno bruto (PIB) en cada año. La conclusión fundamental es que el país requiere continuar avanzando en sus reformas estructurales de segunda generación, de tal manera que se consolide la meta de superávit primarios del 3% del PIB. Sin embargo, hay menos optimismo sobre sus efectos de disminución rápida del nivel de endeudamiento, debido a la carga que ejercerán estas deudas contingentes. En efecto, el alivio en el esfuerzo fiscal que provee las mejores perspectivas de crecimiento económico (4% anual) y las menores tasas de interés, tenderá a ser compensado por estas mayores cargas no incluidas en la relación deuda pública explícita / PIB.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Clavijo Vergara, 2004. "Requisitos Para La Estabilidad Fiscal: Un Balance Y La Agenda," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 22(46-1), pages 146-185, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:003456
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Parthasarathi Shome, 1992. "Trends and Future Directions in Tax Policy Reform; A Latin American Perspective," IMF Working Papers 92/43, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Leonardo Villar Gómez, 2004. "Inflación y finanzas públicas," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(47), pages 56-105, Diciembre.
    3. Cardona Bermeo, Jorge Enrique, 2002. "Manejo de pasivos contingentes en el marco de la disciplina fiscal en Colombia," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34872, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Meijdam, Lex & van de Ven, Martijn & Verbon, Harrie A. A., 1996. "The dynamics of government debt," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 67-90, April.
    5. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    6. Helene Poirson Ward & Luca A Ricci & Catherine A Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 04/15, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hernán Rincón & Jorge Ramos & Ignacio Lozano, 2004. "Crisis Fiscal Actual: Diagnóstico Y Recomendaciones," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002244, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DEUDA PÚBLICA; LATINOAMÉRICA;

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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