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Devaluación y precios agregados en Colombia, 1980-1998

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  • Rincón Hernán

Abstract

Este documento estima modelos de precios para el caso colombiano en el período 1980-1998. Específicamente, se estudían los efectos los efectos de la transmisión de las variaciones de la tasa de cambio nominal (pass-throgh, effects) a los precios agregados de las exportaciones e importaciones y al nivel agregado de precios de la economía. Se encuentra que los efectos de transmisiónde largo plazo son incompletos (no son proporcionales) tanto para los precios de importación como los de exportación, y que la hipótesis de poder de paridad de compra absoluta no se cumple. El efecto de largo plazo del precio de importación y exportación con respecto a una devaluación nominal de peso es de 0.84 y 0.61, respectivamente. El efecto de largo plazo de los precios de importación sobre el nivel general de precios es de 0.11. El efecto directo estimado de la tasa de cambio sobre el nivel general de precios es de 0.48. Contemporáneamente una devaluación incrementa respectivamente el precio de las importaciones y el de las exportaciones (en moneda interna) en un valor estimado del 7.0% y 63.0%. La inflación de los importados tiene un efecto contemporáneo sobre la inflación agregada de aproximadamente 9.0%. La devaluación nominal afecta positivamente la inflación agregada con un rezago de cerca de siete meses.

Suggested Citation

  • Rincón Hernán, 2000. "Devaluación y precios agregados en Colombia, 1980-1998," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000090:004259
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-785, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tasa de cambio; precios; efectos de transmisión. Johansen y Juselius;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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