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Potenzielle Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Risiko und Kosten der Weizenernte

  • Markus Lips

    ()

    (Agroscope)

  • Robert Finger

    (Gruppe Agrar-, Lebensmittel- und Umweltökonomie, ETH Zürich)

  • Pierluigi Calanca

    (Agroscope)

Landwirte sind bei der Weizenernte mit einem beachtlichen Wetterrisiko in Form von Ernteverlusten konfrontiert. Dem kann mit einer höheren Maschinendichte entgegengewirkt werden, was jedoch zu höheren Maschinenkosten führt. Der vorliegende Tradeoff zwischen Maschinenkosten und Ernterisiken ist Gegenstand dieser Arbeit, in der mittels Monte-Carlo-Simulation optimale Grösse des Maschinenparks und optimale, d.h. minimale, Erntekosten bestimmt werden. Insbesondere wird der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die oben beschriebenen Prozesse anhand einer Beispielregion im Schweizer Mittelland analysiert. Unsere Analyse zeigt, dass Klimawandel zu deutlich besseren Erntebedingungen führt und eine Reduktion der optimalen Maschinendichte ermöglicht. Verglichen mit heutigen Klimaverhältnissen führt dies zu einer Verringerung der Kosten bei der Weizenernte um bis zu 23 %. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit können verwendet werden, um bestehende Analysen zu den Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf den Getreideanbau zu komplettieren.

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Article provided by Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology in its journal Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture).

Volume (Year): 1 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 219-323

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Handle: RePEc:cha:ysa001:v:1:y:2008:i:1:p:219-323
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://jsagr.org

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  1. Finger, Robert & Schmid, Stéphanie, 2007. "Modelling Agricultural Production Risk and the Adaptation to Climate Change," MPRA Paper 3943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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