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Führt die Geldpolitik der japanischen Zentralbank zu einem Währungskrieg?

Author

Listed:
  • Jürgen Matthes
  • Horst Löchel
  • Uwe Vollmer
  • Oliver Landmann

Abstract

Beginnt die japanische Notenbank mit ihrer lockeren Geldpolitik einen Abwertungswettlauf? Jürgen Matthes, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln, vertritt die These, dass derzeit nicht von einem echten Währungskrieg die Rede sein kann, dass es jedoch gewisse Anzeichen für eine mögliche Verschärfung der Situation gibt. Zudem könnte der Euro mittelfristig unter erheblichen Aufwertungsdruck und die EZB damit in konfliktreiches Fahrwasser geraten. Horst Löchel, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, ist der Ansicht, dass aus Perspektive der entwickelten Volkswirtschaften Japan keinen Währungskrieg führt, denn auch die Fed und die EZB fluten im Rahmen ihrer Krisenpolitik seit Jahren die Märkte mit billigem Geld. Anders sei aber die japanische Geldpolitik aus der Perspektive der aufstrebenden Volkswirtschaften zu beurteilen. Für sie folge aus dem Kurs der japanischen Geldpolitik, dass noch mehr Kapital in ihre Länder fließe, was mit der Gefahr der Bildung von Vermögensblasen, einer Kreditschwemme, steigender Inflationsraten und steigender Wechselkurse einhergehe. Uwe Vollmer, Universität Leipzig, hält den Begriff Währungskrieg für übertrieben. Anders als andere Länder halte sich Japan bislang an die internationalen Spielregeln, verzichte auf die Einführung von Kapitalverkehrskontrollen und verfolge auch kein explizites Wechselkursziel. Und auch Oliver Landmann, Universität Freiburg, hält »das Gespenst eines drohenden Währungskriegs« für »einen Mythos«.

Suggested Citation

  • Jürgen Matthes & Horst Löchel & Uwe Vollmer & Oliver Landmann, 2013. "Führt die Geldpolitik der japanischen Zentralbank zu einem Währungskrieg?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(10), pages 03-18, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:66:y:2013:i:10:p:03-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taylor, John B., 2013. "International monetary coordination and the great deviation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-472.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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