IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cdh/commen/350.html

A Taxing Dilemma: Assessing the Impact of Tax and Price Changes on the Tobacco Market

Author

Listed:
  • Ian Irvine

    (Concordia University)

  • William Sims

    (Concordia University)

Abstract

Sales of contraband cigarettes in Canada constitute a sizable component of the tobacco market. This illegal trade is associated with a loss in tax revenue and an array of illicit activities that involve gangs and organized crime. Various policy responses have been called for to counter this state of affairs. Increased policing and controls have resulted in the market share of the illegal product declining significantly to about 20 percent in 2010 from about one-third two years earlier. In addition to allocating more resources in order to control the problem, governments have been urged to lower tobacco taxes in the belief that lower relative prices for the legal product will induce smokers to switch in significant numbers away from the illegal supply source, perhaps also increasing tax revenues. This report analyzes the impact of tax and price changes on the composition of the cigarette market in the context of a demand-driven analytical model, in which smokers shift between legal and illegal products to a significant degree.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Irvine & William Sims, 2012. "A Taxing Dilemma: Assessing the Impact of Tax and Price Changes on the Tobacco Market," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 350, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdh:commen:350
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cdhowe.org/taxing-dilemma-assessing-impact-tax-and-price-changes-tobacco-market
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giancarlo Moschini & Karl D. Meilke, 1989. "Modeling the Pattern of Structural Change in U.S. Meat Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 253-261.
    2. Jay Bhattacharya & Neeraj Sood, 2011. "Who Pays for Obesity?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 139-158, Winter.
    3. Joseph Doucet, 2012. "Unclogging the Pipes: Pipeline Reviews and Energy Policy," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 342, February.
    4. Deaton, Angus, 1987. "Estimation of own- and cross-price elasticities from household survey data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 7-30.
    5. Irvine Ian J & Nguyen Hai V, 2011. "Toxic Choices: The Theory and Impact of Smoking Bans," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-36, July.
    6. Geoffrey Young, 2012. "Winners and Losers: The Inequities within Government-Sector, Defined-Benefit Pension Plans," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 347, April.
    7. David R. Percy, 2012. "Resolving Water-use Conflicts: Insights from the Prairie Experience for the MacKenzie River Basin," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 341, February.
    8. Alexandre Laurin & William B.P. Robson, 2012. "Achieving Balance, Spurring Growth: A Shadow Federal Budget for 2012," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 344, March.
    9. Gerard W. Boychuk, 2012. "Grey Zones: Emerging Issues at the Boundaries of the Canada Health Act," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 348, April.
    10. Charles A.M. de Bartolome & Ian J. Irvine, 2010. "The Economics of Smoking Bans," Working Papers 201027, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    11. Charles A.M. De Bartolome, 2007. "Tax competition and the creation of redundant products," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 1213-1236, November.
    12. William B.P. Robson, 2012. "What to do About Seniors' Benefits in Canada: the Case for letting Recipients Take Richer Payments Later," e-briefs 131, C.D. Howe Institute.
    13. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Donald & Liu, Feng, 2013. "Excise tax avoidance: The case of state cigarette taxes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1130-1141.
    14. Charles A.M. de Bartolome, 2007. "Tax competition and the creation of redundant products," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1213-1236, November.
    15. John Richards, 2012. "What CIDA Should do: The Case for Focusing Aid on Better Schools," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 349, April.
    16. Jérôme Adda & Francesca Cornaglia, 2006. "Taxes, Cigarette Consumption, and Smoking Intensity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1013-1028, September.
    17. Jonathan Gruber & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2006. "Do Cigarette Taxes Make Smokers Happier?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Yew-Kwang Ng & Lok Sang Ho (ed.), Happiness and Public Policy, chapter 6, pages 109-146, Palgrave Macmillan.
    18. Laura Dawson, 2012. "Can Canada Join the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Why just wanting it is not enough," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 340, February.
    19. Matthew C. Farrelly & William N. Evans & Edward Montgomery, 1999. "Do Workplace Smoking Bans Reduce Smoking?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 728-747, September.
    20. James MacGee, 2012. "The Rise in Consumer Credit and Bankruptcy: Cause for Concern?," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 346, April.
    21. Jason M. Fletcher & Partha Deb & Jody L. Sindelar, 2009. "Tobacco Use, Taxation and Self Control in Adolescence," NBER Working Papers 15130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard M. Bird, 2018. "Are global taxes feasible?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(5), pages 1372-1400, October.
    2. Anindya Sen, 2016. "Joint Venture: A Blueprint for Federal and Provincial Marijuana Policy," e-briefs 235, C.D. Howe Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ian Irvine & William Sims, 2014. "The simple analytics of tobacco taxation with illegal supply," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(4), pages 1153-1172, November.
    2. James MacGee, 2012. "The Rise in Consumer Credit and Bankruptcy: Cause for Concern?," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 346, April.
    3. Alexandre Laurin & William B.P. Robson, 2012. "Achieving Balance, Spurring Growth: A Shadow Federal Budget for 2012," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 344, March.
    4. Erik Nesson, 2012. "The Distributional Effects of Tobacco Control Policies On Adult Smoking Behavior," Working Papers 201207, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
    5. Michael Kvasnicka & Thomas Siedler & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2018. "The health effects of smoking bans: Evidence from German hospitalization data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(11), pages 1738-1753, November.
    6. Odermatt, Reto & Stutzer, Alois, 2015. "Smoking bans, cigarette prices and life satisfaction," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 176-194.
    7. Josten, Cecily & Lordan, Grace, 2020. "The interaction between personality and health policy: Empirical evidence from the UK smoking bans," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    8. Sunday Azagba & Mesbah Sharaf, 2011. "Cigarette Taxes and Smoking Participation: Evidence from Recent Tax Increases in Canada," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-18, May.
    9. Erik Nesson, 2017. "Heterogeneity in Smokers' Responses to Tobacco Control Policies," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 206-225, February.
    10. Andrew M. Jones & Audrey Laporte & Nigel Rice & Eugenio Zucchelli, 2015. "Do Public Smoking Bans have an Impact on Active Smoking? Evidence from the UK," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 175-192, February.
    11. Adam Aptowitzer & Benjamin Dachis, 2012. "At the Crossroads: New Ideas for Charity Finance in Canada," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 343, March.
    12. Henry Shelton Brown & Steve Karson, 2013. "Cigarette Quitlines, Taxes, And Other Tobacco Control Policies: A State‐Level Analysis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 741-748, June.
    13. Andrew Leicester & Peter Levell, 2016. "Anti‐Smoking Policies and Smoker Well‐Being: Evidence from Britain," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 37, pages 224-257, June.
    14. Itzik Fadlon & Torben Heien Nielsen, 2019. "Family Health Behaviors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3162-3191, September.
    15. Abel Brodeur, 2012. "Smoking, Income and Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from Smoking Bans," PSE Working Papers halshs-00664269, HAL.
    16. Padmaja Ayyagari & Partha Deb & Jason Fletcher & William Gallo & Jody L. Sindelar, 2013. "Understanding Heterogeneity In Price Elasticities In The Demand For Alcohol For Older Individuals," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-105, January.
    17. Jérôme Adda & Francesca Cornaglia, 2010. "The Effect of Bans and Taxes on Passive Smoking," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
    18. Esteban Petruzzello, 2019. "Measuring the Effect of Policy on the Demand for Menthol Cigarettes: Evidence from Household-Level Purchase Data," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 422-445, June.
    19. DeCicca, Philip & McLeod, Logan, 2008. "Cigarette taxes and older adult smoking: Evidence from recent large tax increases," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 918-929, July.
    20. Giovanni Immordino & Anna Maria C. Menichini & Maria Grazia Romano, 2020. "Taxing and Regulating Vices," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(2), pages 622-647, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdh:commen:350. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kristine Gray The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Kristine Gray to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cdhowca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.