IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cbk/journl/v9y2020i2p67-85.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate Targeting Versus Inflation Targeting: Empirical Analysis of the Impact on Employment and Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Borivoje Krušković

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of two alternative monetary strategies (exchange rate targeting and inflation targeting) on economic growth and employment. On the panel of 18 countries for the period from 1996 to 2013, I tested the hypothesis that countries in exchange rate targeting have a higher rate of GDP growth and lower inflation rate. In order to test the impact of exchange rate policy on economic growth and prices, I applied dynamic panel two stepwise method of least squares (2SLS method) and they were evaluated by two independent regression equation. In order to allow the comparison of results related to exchange rate targeting, the effects of the introduction of inflation targeting in the unemployment rate were also estimated using the panel method two stepwise least squares (2SLS method). Results of empirical studies show that countries with inflation targeting have a lower rate of economic growth and higher unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Borivoje Krušković, 2020. "Exchange Rate Targeting Versus Inflation Targeting: Empirical Analysis of the Impact on Employment and Economic Growth," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(2), pages 67-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:9:y:2020:i:2:p:67-85
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cbcg.me/repec/cbk/journl/vol9no2-4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nikola Fabris, 2018. "Challenges for Modern Monetary Policy," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 7(2), pages 5-24.
    2. Andrew K. Rose, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era : Fixed, Floating, and Flaky," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 652-672, September.
    3. Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou, 2011. "Working Paper 134 - Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate Shocks and Output: Evidence from South Africa," Working Paper Series 324, African Development Bank.
    4. Nikola Fabris & Nina Vujanović, 2017. "The Impact of Financial Dollarization on Inflation Targeting: Empirical Evidence from Serbia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 6(2), pages 23-43.
    5. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2018. "Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
    6. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2015. "The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation below a Credible Target," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 258-296, January.
    7. Charles L. Evans, 2012. "Monetary Policy in a Low‐Inflation Environment: Developing a State‐Contingent Price‐Level Target," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s1), pages 147-155, February.
    8. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen & Nikolaj Malchow-Møller & Jens Nordvig, 2015. "Inflation targeting and macroeconomic performance since the Great Recession," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 598-613.
    9. Atish R Ghosh & Jonathan D Ostry & Mahvash S Qureshi, 2015. "Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 238-276, May.
    10. Mr. Chorng-Huey Wong & Mr. Eric V. Clifton & Mr. Gene L. Leon, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off," IMF Working Papers 2001/166, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Virginia Di Nino & Barry Eichengreen & Massimo Sbracia, 2011. "Real exchange rates, trade, and growth: Italy 1861-2011," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 10, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Matthieu Bussière & Claude Lopez & Cédric Tille, 2015. "Do real exchange rate appreciations matter for growth?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 5-45.
    13. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Mileva, Elitza & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "The real exchange rate and economic growth: Revisiting the case using external instruments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 386-398.
    14. Renée A. Fry-McKibbin & Chen Wang, 2014. "Does Inflation Targeting Outperform Alternative Policies during Global Downturns?," CAMA Working Papers 2014-64, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    17. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Karl Taylor, 2016. "Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe vs. the Eurozone: Non-linearities and long memory," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(5), pages 519-538, November.
    18. Yamada, Hiroyuki, 2013. "Does the exchange rate regime make a difference in inflation performance in developing and emerging countries?: The role of inflation targeting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 968-989.
    19. Ramprasad Bhar & Girijasankar Mallik, 2013. "Inflation uncertainty, growth uncertainty, oil prices, and output growth in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1333-1350, December.
    20. Harris Maduku & Irrshad Kaseeram, 2018. "Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy and Unemployment in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(4), pages 88-96.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Mileva, Elitza & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "The real exchange rate and economic growth: Revisiting the case using external instruments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 386-398.
    2. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2019. "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 279-293, May.
    5. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Erdal Özmen, 2016. "Real Exchange Rates and Growth," ERC Working Papers 1609, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Sep 2016.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Abdallah, Ali, 2022. "Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique [Can real currency depreciation lead growth?]," MPRA Paper 113183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Firat Demir & Arslan Razmi, 2022. "The Real Exchange Rate And Development Theory, Evidence, Issues And Challenges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 386-428, April.
    9. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, June.
    10. Fatma Erdem & Erdal Özmen, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1041-1058, November.
    11. Marlene Amstad & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 2017. "Long-run effects of exchange rate appreciation: Another puzzle?," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 68(01), pages 63-82, December.
    12. Kohler, Karsten, 2019. "Exchange rate dynamics, balance sheet effects, and capital flows. A Minskyan model of emerging market boom-bust cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 270-283.
    13. Mr. Balazs Csonto & Tryggvi Gudmundsson, 2020. "Destabilizing Stability? Exchange Rate Arrangements and Foreign Currency Debt," IMF Working Papers 2020/173, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Mr. Alberto Behar & Ramin Hassan, 2022. "The Current Account Income Balance: External Adjustment Channel or Vulnerability Amplifier?," IMF Working Papers 2022/106, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Corzo, Teresa & Martin-Bujack, Karin & Portela, Jose & Rodríguez-Gallego, Alejandro, 2025. "Exchange rate regime changes and market efficiency: An event study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    16. Lu, Dong & Liu, Jialin & Zhou, Hang, 2022. "Global financial conditions, capital flows and the exchange rate regime in emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2018. "Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
    18. Jorge Carrera & Pablo de la Vega, 2024. "The effect of external debt on greenhouse gas emissions," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(3), pages 754-776, September.
    19. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    20. Xinqian Du & Tian Pu, 2025. "U.S. economic uncertainty shocks and extreme capital flows episodes: An empirical analysis of emerging and developing economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 352-368, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:9:y:2020:i:2:p:67-85. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbmgvme.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.