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Self-Fulfilling and Fundamentals Based Speculative Attacks: A Theoretical Interpretation of the Euro Area Crisis

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  • Posta Pompeo Della

    () (Dipartimento di Economia e Management, Università di Pisa, Via Ridolfi, 10 56124 Pisa, Italy)

Abstract

The recent euro area crisis shows some similarities with the fixed exchange rate crisis that affected the European Monetary System in 1992–93. I argue that the theoretical framework to be used in order to analyze them should also be similar. As a matter of fact, in both cases, the point of view of the government (that compares costs and benefits of its action) should be considered together with the point of view of speculators, who look at the state of the economic fundamentals in order to decide whether to launch an attack or not. This allows to represent and to interpret, among other things, both the initial “honeymoon” years of EMU and the recent euro area crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Posta Pompeo Della, 2016. "Self-Fulfilling and Fundamentals Based Speculative Attacks: A Theoretical Interpretation of the Euro Area Crisis," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 459-478, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:16:y:2016:i:3:p:459-478:n:4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bensaid, Bernard & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "The instability of fixed exchange rate systems when raising the nominal interest rate is costly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1461-1478, August.
    2. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2016. "Currency and external debt crises: A unifying framework," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 723-736.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area crisis; economic fundamentals; self-fulfilling expectations; public debt; speculative attacks;

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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