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Self-Fulfilling and Fundamentals Based Speculative Attacks: A Theoretical Interpretation of the Euro Area Crisis

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  • Posta Pompeo Della

    (Dipartimento di Economia e Management, Università di Pisa, Via Ridolfi, 10 56124 Pisa, Italy)

Abstract

The recent euro area crisis shows some similarities with the fixed exchange rate crisis that affected the European Monetary System in 1992–93. I argue that the theoretical framework to be used in order to analyze them should also be similar. As a matter of fact, in both cases, the point of view of the government (that compares costs and benefits of its action) should be considered together with the point of view of speculators, who look at the state of the economic fundamentals in order to decide whether to launch an attack or not. This allows to represent and to interpret, among other things, both the initial “honeymoon” years of EMU and the recent euro area crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Posta Pompeo Della, 2016. "Self-Fulfilling and Fundamentals Based Speculative Attacks: A Theoretical Interpretation of the Euro Area Crisis," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 459-478, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:16:y:2016:i:3:p:459-478:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/gej-2015-0063
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bensaid, Bernard & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "The instability of fixed exchange rate systems when raising the nominal interest rate is costly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1461-1478, August.
    2. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
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    1. Pompeo Della Posta, 2017. "Reconsidering the economic and political reasons of the euro area crisis: Diverging fundamentals or self-fulfilling expectations?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 283-310.
    2. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2021. "Government size and speculative attacks on public debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 79-89.
    3. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2016. "Currency and external debt crises: A unifying framework," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 723-736.
    4. Pompeo Della Posta, 2018. "Fiscal austerity and monetary easing: which one is to be praised for ending the euro area crisis?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 15(1), pages 165-189, June.
    5. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2018. "A model of currency crises with heterogeneous market beliefs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-195.
    6. Pompeo Della Posta & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2020. "A market‐financed and growth‐enhancing investment plan for the euro area," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 604-632, July.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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