Legacy of the Past: Evaluating the Long-Term Impact of Historical Trade Ports on Contemporary Industrial Agglomeration in China

Since its economic reforms and opening up, China has experienced rapid economic growth; however, regional disparities in economic development have continued to widen. In exploring the causes of regional economic disparities, historical factors have played a significant role. Grounded in the theory of New Economic Geography, this study examines the long-term impacts of trade port openings in the late Qing Dynasty on contemporary industrial agglomeration and regional economic imbalances and further investigates the mechanisms through which trade ports influence contemporary industrial agglomeration. By quantitatively analyzing historical and contemporary industrial indicators of counties and prefecture-level cities with and without trade ports, we find that the opening of these ports not only propelled the development of modern industry in the late Qing Dynasty but also significantly affects contemporary industrial agglomeration. Furthermore, areas with historical trade ports exhibit higher levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade today, indicating a greater degree of economic openness. Moreover, the interactions between foreign trade, FDI, and ports have historically stimulated modern industrial development and continue to foster industrial agglomeration today. This research highlights the importance of economic openness and underscores the necessity of considering historical factors when formulating regional development strategies.