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¿La inflación está de vuelta en Sudamérica?. Choques exógenos, expectativas y credibilidad de la política monetaria

  • Pablo Mendieta Ossio

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

  • Sergio Cerezo Aguirre

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

  • Javier Cossío Medinacelli

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Las expectativas de inflación reaccionaron de diversa forma frente al aumento de la inflación en América Latina hasta mediados de 2008, originada por el incremento de los precios de los combustibles y alimentos. El presente documento expone dos modelos económicos que exploran los factores que determinan las expectativas económicas y la distinción entre choques monetarios y de oferta, destacando que la credibilidad de la política monetaria es crucial para anclar las expectativas de inflación. Posteriormente, se analizan las encuestas de expectativas económicas de siete países sudamericanos seleccionados, destacando con modelos econométricos que el incremento más fuerte ocurrió en aquellos países con historial de incumplimiento de las metas planteadas. Inflation expectations have reacted in several ways to the rise of Latin America inflation until mid-2008, driven by food and oil prices increases. This paper exposes two economic models that explain the determinants of inflations expectations and their relationship with the distinction between monetary and supply shocks, revealing that the monetary policy credibility is critical in anchoring inflation expectations. Then, it analyses inflation expectations survey in seven Latin American countries with econometric models, where is clear that larger increases were observed in countries with previous persistent deviations of inflation targets.

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Article provided by Banco Central de Bolivia in its journal Revista de Análisis.

Volume (Year): 11 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (December)
Pages: 111-146

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Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:11:y:2009:i:1:p:111-146
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