IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v26y2003i6p853-871.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Possible Dynamic Effects of AFTA for the New Member Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Emiko Fukase
  • L. Alan Winters

Abstract

We discuss the possible dynamic benefits of economic integration for the new members of ASEAN. Direct evidence on regional integration and growth is weak, but three indirect channels are possible. Openness increases access to foreign knowledge, which could help productivity growth. Trade liberalisation is likely to stimulate investment and might promote the integration of the regional production network. Binding liberalisation under AFTA would help ‘lock‐in’ and accelerate liberal economic reforms. These gains are not automatic, however. Discriminatory liberalisation will switch imports from sources with high stocks of knowledge towards ASEAN countries, which have lower stocks, and so may lower productivity growth. We term this ‘dynamic’ trade diversion. In addition, local absorptive capabilities must be developed to benefit fully from technology transfer. Finally, we recommend extending AFTA commitments on an MFN basis in order to avoid static and dynamic trade diversions.

Suggested Citation

  • Emiko Fukase & L. Alan Winters, 2003. "Possible Dynamic Effects of AFTA for the New Member Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 853-871, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:26:y:2003:i:6:p:853-871
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9701.00551
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00551
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-9701.00551?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keller, Wolfgang, 2000. "Do Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(1), pages 17-47, January.
    2. Keller, Wolfgang, 1998. "Are international R&D spillovers trade-related?: Analyzing spillovers among randomly matched trade partners," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1469-1481, September.
    3. Puga, Diego & Venables, Anthony J., 1997. "Preferential trading arrangements and industrial location," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 347-368, November.
    4. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    5. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Athanasios Vamvakidis, 1999. "Regional Trade Agreements or Broad Liberalization: Which Path Leads to Faster Growth?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 1-3.
    7. Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1998. "Trade liberalization and endogenous growth in a small open economy : a quantitative assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1970, The World Bank.
    8. Edwards, Sebastian, 1993. "Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1358-1393, September.
    9. Schiff, Maurice & Winters, L Alan, 1998. "Dynamics and Politics in Regional Integration Arrangements: An Introduction," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(2), pages 177-195, May.
    10. Soamiely Andriamananjara & Maurice Schiff, 2001. "Regional Cooperation among Microstates," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 42-51, February.
    11. Maurice Schiff & L. Alan Winters, 2003. "Regional Integration and Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15172, December.
    12. Puga, Diego & Venables, Anthony J, 1999. "Agglomeration and Economic Development: Import Substitution vs. Trade Liberalisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 292-311, April.
    13. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-544, April.
    14. Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2017. "Trade liberalization, product variety and growth in a small open economy: a quantitative assessment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 17, pages 389-414, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Navaretti, Giorgio Barba & Soloaga, Isidro & Takacs, Wendy, 1998. "When vintage technology makes sense : matching imports to skills," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1923, The World Bank.
    16. Keller, Wolfgang, 1996. "Absorptive capacity: On the creation and acquisition of technology in development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 199-227, April.
    17. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
    18. Walz, Uwe, 1997. "Growth and Deeper Regional Integration in a Three-County Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 492-507, November.
    19. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fukase,Emiko & Martin,William J. & Fukase,Emiko & Martin,William J., 2015. "Economic implications of a potential free trade agreement between India and the United States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7212, The World Bank.
    2. Hiro Lee & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2007. "Regional Integration, Sectoral Adjustments and Natural Groupings in East Asia," OSIPP Discussion Paper 07E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    3. Nguyen K. Doanh & Yoon Heo, 2009. "AFTA and Trade Diversion: An Empirical Study for Vietnam and Singapore," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 163-192, March.
    4. Huanguang Qiu & Jun Yang & Jikun Huang & Ruijian Chen, 2007. "Impact of China‐ASEAN Free Trade Area on China's International Agricultural Trade and Its Regional Development," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(5), pages 77-90, September.
    5. A. A. Alikhanov & V. Yu. Skryabina & E. V. Tarasyuk, 0. "Liberalization Trade Relationship Between The Countries: Assessment And Consequences," International Trade and Trade Policy, ФГБОУ ВО "Ð Ð¾Ñ Ñ Ð¸Ð¹Ñ ÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸Ñ‡ÐµÑ ÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑƒÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑ€Ñ Ð¸Ñ‚ÐµÑ‚ им. Г.Ð’. Плеханова", issue 3.
    6. Lee, Hiro & Roland-Holst, David & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2004. "China's emergence in East Asia under alternative trading arrangements," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 697-712, August.
    7. Bernadette Andreosso-O’Callaghan, 2009. "How is the EU-ASEAN FTA viewed by ASEAN stakeholders?," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 63-78, February.
    8. Wang, Zhi & Gehlhar, Mark & Yao, Shunli, 2006. "Estimating Hong Kong Re-export Markups and Reconciling Trade Statistics from China, Hong Kong and Their Major Trading Partners - A Mathematical Programming Approach," Conference papers 331486, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wacziarg, Romain, 1998. "Measuring the dynamic gains from trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2001, The World Bank.
    2. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    3. Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2004. "EU Expansion and EU Growth," International Economic Association Series, in: Alan V. Deardorff (ed.), The Past, Present and Future of the European Union, chapter 5, pages 74-102, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Mastromarco, Camilla & Ghosh, Sucharita, 2009. "Foreign Capital, Human Capital, and Efficiency: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis for Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 489-502, February.
    5. Gong, Guan & Keller, Wolfgang, 2003. "Convergence and polarization in global income levels: a review of recent results on the role of international technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1055-1079, June.
    6. Lai, Mingyong & Peng, Shuijun & BAO, Qun, 2006. "Technology spillovers, absorptive capacity and economic growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 300-320.
    7. Chang, Roberto & Kaltani, Linda & Loayza, Norman V., 2009. "Openness can be good for growth: The role of policy complementarities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49, September.
    8. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    9. John Knight & Sai Ding, 2008. "Why has China Grown so Fast? The Role of Structural Change," Economics Series Working Papers 415, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Olivier Peron & Serge Rey, 2012. "Trade and convergence of per capita income in the Indian Ocean Zone, 1950–2008," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(3), pages 657-683, December.
    11. Susan Randolph & Elizabeth Kaletski, 2018. "Securing Economic and Social Rights: Obstacle or Handmaiden to Growth?," Economic Rights Working Papers 26, University of Connecticut, Human Rights Institute.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4104 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sinem Pınar Gürel & Aykut Lenger, 2016. "The Nonlinear Analysis of External Dynamics on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 9(1), pages 57-68, April.
    14. Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George & Pavleas, Sotiris, 2007. "Determinants of economic growth: the experts’ view," Papers DYNREG20, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Wolfgang Keller, 2004. "International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 752-782, September.
    16. Jin, Jang C., 2006. "Can openness be an engine of sustained high growth rates and inflation?: Evidence from Japan and Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 228-240.
    17. Klaus Wälde & Christina Wood, 2004. "The empirics of trade and growth: where are the policy recommendations?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 275-292, January.
    18. Hexian Wang & Wei Liu & Mengyuan Zhu & Qing Wang, 2018. "Embrace or Not? An Empirical Study of the Impact of Globalization on the Country’s Sustainability in the Case of NAFTA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    19. Omar S. Dahi & Firat Demir, 2017. "South–South And North–South Economic Exchanges: Does It Matter Who Is Exchanging What And With Whom?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1449-1486, December.
    20. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
    21. Mark Rogers, 2003. "A Survey of Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(244), pages 112-135, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:26:y:2003:i:6:p:853-871. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.