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Expectations in Mass Elections: Back to the Future?


  • Marc Guinjoan
  • Pablo Simón
  • Sandra Bermúdez
  • Ignacio Lago


type="main"> This article examines whether voters look to the past or the future when forming their perceptions of the parties’ chances of winning. We use OLS regression models to analyze panel survey data from the districts where the incumbent was defeated in the 2011 provincial election in Ontario (Canada). We find that voters’ expectations in the districts are mainly affected by the results of the upcoming election and not by the outcome of the previous election. We also find that expectations are influenced by the phenomenon of wishful thinking. This study sheds light on how voters form their perceptions of the parties’ chances of winning.

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  • Marc Guinjoan & Pablo Simón & Sandra Bermúdez & Ignacio Lago, 2014. "Expectations in Mass Elections: Back to the Future?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1346-1359, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:95:y:2014:i:5:p:1346-1359

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. André Blais & Marc André Bodet, 2006. "How Do Voters Form Expectations about the Parties' Chances of Winning the Election?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 87(3), pages 477-493, September.
    2. Cox, Gary W & Shugart, Matthew Soberg, 1996. "Strategic Voting under Proportional Representation," Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 299-324, October.
    3. Jean-François Laslier, 2009. "The Leader rule: a model of strategic approval voting in a large electorate," Post-Print hal-00363218, HAL.
    4. Karine Van der Straeten & Jean-François Laslier & Nicolas Sauger & André Blais, 2010. "Strategic, sincere, and heuristic voting under four election rules: an experimental study," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 35(3), pages 435-472, September.
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