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Strategic Mortgage Default: The Effect of Neighborhood Factors

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  • Michael G. Bradley
  • Amy Crews Cutts
  • Wei Liu

Abstract

type="main"> This article studies strategic default—the willingness of a borrower to walk away from a mortgage when the value of the home falls below the unpaid principal balance despite an ability to pay. This study differs from the literature in two fundamental ways. First, we use unique data assets describing the household's equity position and capacity to carry the debt in addition to credit performance to identify strategic defaulters accurately. Second, we address externalities from local foreclosures and other strategic defaults and find that the incidence of strategic default is sensitive to the presence of other nearby strategic defaulters. These results have significant implications for foreclosure and loss mitigation policies employed by servicers and investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael G. Bradley & Amy Crews Cutts & Wei Liu, 2015. "Strategic Mortgage Default: The Effect of Neighborhood Factors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 271-299, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:43:y:2015:i:2:p:271-299
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1540-6229.12081
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Riddiough, Timothy J & Wyatt, Steve B, 1994. "Strategic Default, Workout, and Commercial Mortgage Valuation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 5-22, July.
    2. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2013. "The Determinants of Attitudes toward Strategic Default on Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1473-1515, August.
    3. Michael Seiler & Mark Lane & David Harrison, 2014. "Mimetic Herding Behavior and the Decision to Strategically Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 621-653, November.
    4. Andra C. Ghent & Marianna Kudlyak, 2010. "Recourse and residential mortgage default: theory and evidence from U.S. states," Working Paper 09-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    5. Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-299, August.
    6. David M Harrison & Mark A. Lane & Michael J. Seiler, 2014. "Mimetic Herding Behavior and the Decision to Strategically Default," Framed Field Experiments 00625, The Field Experiments Website.
    7. Kau James B. & Keenan Donald C. & Kim Taewon, 1994. "Default Probabilities for Mortgages," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 278-296, May.
    8. W. Scott Frame, 2010. "Estimating the effect of mortgage foreclosures on nearby property values: a critical review of the literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 95(3).
    9. Michael J. Seiler & Vicky L. Seiler & Mark A. Lane & David M. Harrison, 2012. "Fear, Shame and Guilt: Economic and Behavioral Motivations for Strategic Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40, pages 199-233, December.
    10. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C. & Muller III, Walter J. & Epperson, James F., 1995. "The Valuation at Origination of Fixed-Rate Mortgages with Default and Prepayment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-36, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcus T. Allen & Justin D. Benefield & Christopher L. Cain & Norman Maynard, 2024. "Distressed Property Sales: Differences and Similarities Across Types of Distress," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 318-353, February.
    2. Agata M. Lozinskaia & Evgeniy M. Ozhegov & Alexander M. Karminsky, 2016. "Discontinuity in Relative Credit Losses: Evidence from Defaults on Government-Insured Residential Mortgages," HSE Working papers WP BRP 55/FE/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    3. Yosi Borochov & Boris A. Portnov, 2021. "Estimating Environmentally Adjusted Risks of Mortgage Arrears for Different Socioeconomic Groups of Borrowers," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 595-620.
    4. Daxuan Zhao & Yonglin Wang & Tien Foo Sing, 2019. "Impact of Foreclosure Laws on Mortgage Loan Supply and Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 159-200, February.
    5. Thomas P. Boehm & Alan M. Schlottmann, 2017. "Mortgage Payment Problem Development and Recovery: A Joint Probability Model Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 476-510, November.
    6. Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Unemloyment and Unobserved Credit Risk in the FHA Single Family Mortgage Insurance Fund," NBER Working Papers 18880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Martin Brown & Jan Schmitz & Christian Zehnder, 2023. "Moral Constraints, Social Norm Enforcement and Strategic Default in Weak and Strong Economic Conditions," Working Papers 23.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    8. Quan Gan & Maggie Rong Hu & Wayne Xinwei Wan, 2022. "Contract rescission in the real estate presale market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1054-1106, December.
    9. Thomas P. Boehm & Alan M. Schlottmann, 2020. "Achieving Effective Mortgage Modifications: The Importance of Household Characteristics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 151-182, August.
    10. Pavan, Marina & Barreda-Tarrazona, Iván, 2020. "Should I default on my mortgage even if I can pay? Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Saty Patrabansh, 2015. "The Marginal Effect of First-Time Homebuyer Status on Mortgage Default and Prepayment," FHFA Staff Working Papers 15-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    12. Weiran Huang & Ashlyn Nelson & Stephen L. Ross, 2018. "Foreclosure Spillovers within Broad Neighborhoods," Working papers 2018-23, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    13. Uddin, Md Hamid & Akter, Shabiha & Mollah, Sabur & Al Mahi, Masnun, 2022. "Differences in bank and microfinance business models: An analysis of the loan monitoring systems and funding sources," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Chrysovalantis Gaganis & Panagiota Papadimitri & Fotios Pasiouras & Menelaos Tasiou, 2023. "Social traits and credit card default: a two-stage prediction framework," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(2), pages 1231-1253, June.
    15. Chris Cunningham & Kristopher Gerardi & Lily Shen, 2021. "The Double Trigger for Mortgage Default: Evidence from the Fracking Boom," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3943-3964, June.
    16. Peter Ganong & Pascal J. Noel, 2020. "Why Do Borrowers Default on Mortgages? A New Method For Causal Attribution," Working Papers 2020-100, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.

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