IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/popdev/v30y2004i4p727-742.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

HIV/AIDS and Cross-National Convergence in Life Expectancy

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Neumayer

Abstract

This article analyzes the effect of HIV/AIDS on the cross-national convergence in life expectancy as well as infant and child survival rates by comparing three scenarios. One is based on historical and future best-guess estimated values given the existence of the epidemic. The second scenario assumes that the effect of the epidemic is much worse than expected. The final scenario is based on hypothetical values derived from estimations where the mortality caused by the epidemic is removed. For life expectancy, convergence becomes stalled in the late 1980s (without weighting by country population size) or 1990s (with weighting). Convergence in infant and child survival rates does not become stalled, but slows down. These results are mainly attributable to the epidemic since all signs of stalled convergence or even divergence disappear in the "No AIDS scenario." Given the existence of the epidemic, however, the reduced degree of inequality in life expectancy attained by 1985 is only expected to be achieved again by 2015 at the earliest. If the epidemic turns out much worse than expected, divergence could continue to 2050. No divergence is to be expected in infant and child survival rates in any of the scenarios. Copyright 2004 The Population Council, Inc..

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Neumayer, 2004. "HIV/AIDS and Cross-National Convergence in Life Expectancy," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(4), pages 727-742.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:30:y:2004:i:4:p:727-742
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.00039.x
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Céline Azémar & Rodolphe Desbordes, 2009. "Public Governance, Health and Foreign Direct Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 18(4), pages 667-709, August.
    2. Clark, Rob, 2011. "World health inequality: Convergence, divergence, and development," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 72(4), pages 617-624, February.
    3. Shawn F. Dorius, 2008. "Global Demographic Convergence? A Reconsideration of Changing Intercountry Inequality in Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(3), pages 519-537.
    4. Martin Gächter & Engelbert Theurl, 2010. "Convergence of the Health Status at the Local Level: Empirical Evidence from Austria," NRN working papers 2010-09, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    5. Srinivas, Goli, 2014. "Demographic convergence and its linkage with health inequalities in India," MPRA Paper 79823, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Dec 2014.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:30:y:2004:i:4:p:727-742. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0098-7921 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.