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Incomplete Information Games With Multiple Priors

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  • ATSUSHI KAJII
  • TAKASHI UI

Abstract

We present a model of incomplete information games with sets of priors. Upon arrival of private information, each player "updates" by the Bayes rule each of priors in this set to construct the set of posteriors consistent with the arrived piece of information. Then the player uses a possibly proper subset of this set of posteriors to form beliefs about the opponents' strategic choices. And finally the player evaluates his actions by the most pessimistic posterior beliefs `a la Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989). So each player's preferences may exhibit non-linearity in probabilities which can be interpreted as the player's aversion to ambiguity or uncertainty. In this setup, we define a couple of equilibrium concepts, establish existence results for them, and demonstrate by examples how players' views on uncertainty about the environment affect the strategic outcomes.
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  • Atsushi Kajii & Takashi Ui, 2005. "Incomplete Information Games With Multiple Priors," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 56(3), pages 332-351.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecrev:v:56:y:2005:i:3:p:332-351
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aryal, Gaurab & Stauber, Ronald, 2014. "A note on Kuhn’s Theorem with ambiguity averse players," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 110-114.
    2. Dorian Beauchêne, 2016. "Solution concepts for games with ambiguous payoffs," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 80(2), pages 245-269, February.
    3. Muraviev, Igor & Riedel, Frank & Sass, Linda, 2017. "Kuhn’s Theorem for extensive form Ellsberg games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 26-41.
    4. repec:spr:etbull:v:2:y:2014:i:2:d:10.1007_s40505-014-0037-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dominiak, Adam & Lefort, Jean-Philippe, 2015. "“Agreeing to disagree” type results under ambiguity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 119-129.
    6. Atsushi Kajii & Takashi Ui, 2004. "Trade with Heterogeneous Multiple Priors," KIER Working Papers 582, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Kajii, Atsushi & Ui, Takashi, 2009. "Interim efficient allocations under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 337-353, January.
    8. Eichberger, Jürgen & Grant, Simon & Kelsey, David, 2017. "Ambiguity and the Centipede Game: Strategic Uncertainty in Multi-Stage Games," Working Papers 0638, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    9. Ahn, David S., 2007. "Hierarchies of ambiguous beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 286-301, September.
    10. De Marco, Giuseppe & Romaniello, Maria, 2013. "A limit theorem for equilibria under ambiguous belief correspondences," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 431-438.
    11. : Kostas Koufopoulos & : Roman Kozhan, 2012. "Optimal Insurance under Advserse Selection and Ambiguity Aversion," Working Papers wpn12-07, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    12. Stauber, Ronald, 2011. "Knightian games and robustness to ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 248-274, January.
    13. Ronald Stauber, 2014. "A framework for robustness to ambiguity of higher-order beliefs," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 43(3), pages 525-550, August.
    14. Akira Okada, 2009. "Announcement," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 33-34.
    15. Azrieli, Yaron & Teper, Roee, 2011. "Uncertainty aversion and equilibrium existence in games with incomplete information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 310-317.
    16. Zimper, Alexander, 2009. "Half empty, half full and why we can agree to disagree forever," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 283-299, August.
    17. Grant, Simon & Meneghel, Idione & Tourky, Rabee, 2016. "Savage games," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(2), May.
    18. Dominiak, Adam & Lee, Min Suk, 2017. "Coherent Dempster–Shafer equilibrium and ambiguous signals," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 42-54.
    19. Gaurab Aryal & Ronald Stauber, 2014. "Trembles in extensive games with ambiguity averse players," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 57(1), pages 1-40, September.
    20. repec:eee:mateco:v:75:y:2018:i:c:p:31-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Stauber, Ronald, 2017. "Irrationality and ambiguity in extensive games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 409-432.
    22. Ronald Stauber, 2013. "A Framework for Robustness to Ambiguity of Higher-Order Beliefs," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-602, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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