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Trade with Heterogeneous Multiple Priors

Author

Listed:
  • Atsushi Kajii

    (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

  • Takashi Ui

    (Faculty of Economics, Yokohama National University)

Abstract

This paper presents a general framework to understand the possibility of a purely speculative trade under asymmetric information, where the decision making rule of each trader conforms to the multiple priors model (Gibloa and Schmeidler, 1989): the agents are interested in the minimum of the conditional expected value of trade where the minimum is taken over the set of posteriors. In this framework, we derive a necessary and sufficient condition on the sets of posteriors, thus implicitly on the updating rules adopted by the agents, for non-existence of trade such that it is always common knowledge that every agent expects a positive gain.

Suggested Citation

  • Atsushi Kajii & Takashi Ui, 2004. "Trade with Heterogeneous Multiple Priors," KIER Working Papers 582, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:582
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    File URL: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/DP/DP582.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Samet, Dov, 1998. "Common Priors and Separation of Convex Sets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 172-174, July.
    2. Grant, Simon & Kajii, Atsushi & Polak, Ben, 2000. "Decomposable Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 169-197, June.
    3. Kajii, Atsushi & Ui, Takashi, 2006. "Agreeable bets with multiple priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 299-305, May.
    4. Antoine Billot & Alain Chateauneuf & Itzhak Gilboa & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2000. "Sharing Beliefs: Between Agreeing and Disagreeing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 685-694, May.
    5. Harsanyi, John C, 1995. "Games with Incomplete Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 291-303, June.
    6. Ng, Man-Chung, 2003. "On the duality between prior beliefs and trading demands," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 39-51, March.
    7. Gilboa Itzhak & Schmeidler David, 1993. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 33-49, February.
    8. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February.
    9. Epstein, Larry G. & Schneider, Martin, 2003. "Recursive multiple-priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 1-31, November.
    10. Feinberg, Yossi, 2000. "Characterizing Common Priors in the Form of Posteriors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 127-179, April.
    11. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    12. Atsushi Kajii & Takashi Ui, 2005. "Incomplete Information Games With Multiple Priors," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 56(3), pages 332-351.
    13. Halevy, Yoram, 2004. "The possibility of speculative trade between dynamically consistent agents," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 189-198, January.
    14. Morris, Stephen, 1994. "Trade with Heterogeneous Prior Beliefs and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1327-1347, November.
    15. Robert J Aumann, 1999. "Agreeing to Disagree," Levine's Working Paper Archive 512, David K. Levine.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kajii, Atsushi & Ui, Takashi, 2006. "Agreeable bets with multiple priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 299-305, May.
    2. Atsushi Kajii & Takashi Ui, 2005. "Incomplete Information Games With Multiple Priors," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 56(3), pages 332-351.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    no trade; dynamic consistency; interim efficiency; rectangularity;

    JEL classification:

    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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