IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jcmkts/v43y2005i5p921-946.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetries in Transatlantic Monetary Policy‐making: Does the ECB Follow the Fed?

Author

Listed:
  • ANSGAR BELKE
  • DANIEL GROS

Abstract

The belief that the European Central Bank (ECB) follows the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) in setting its policy is so entrenched with market participants and commentators that the search for empirical support would seem to be a trivial task. However, this is not the case. We find that the ECB is indeed often influenced by the Fed, but the reverse is true at least as often if one considers longer sample periods. There is empirically little support for the proposition that there has for a long time been a systematic asymmetric leader‐follower relationship between the ECB and the Fed. Only after September 2001 is there more evidence of such an asymmetry. There is a clear‐cut structural break between the period pre‐economic and monetary union (EMU) and EMU itself in terms of the relationship between short‐term interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2005. "Asymmetries in Transatlantic Monetary Policy‐making: Does the ECB Follow the Fed?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 921-946, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:43:y:2005:i:5:p:921-946
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5965.2005.00602.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2005.00602.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2005.00602.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Decembrie.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2017. "The relevance of international spillovers and asymmetric effects in the Taylor rule," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 162-170.
    2. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Luca Dedola & Georgios Georgiadis & Marek Jarocinski & Livio Stracca & Georg Strasser, 2023. "Making Waves: Monetary Policy and Its Asymmetric Transmission in a Globalized World," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 95-144, June.
    3. Ciner, Cetin, 2011. "Eurocurrency interest rate linkages: A frequency domain analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 498-505, October.
    4. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policy shocks in OECD countries: how important is the extent of policy uncertainty?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 683-703, July.
    5. Colin Gray, 2013. "Responding to a Monetary Superpower: Investigating the Behavioral Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(2), pages 173-184, June.
    6. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Monetary policy coordination leader followership," MPRA Paper 85684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Martin Mandler, 2010. "Explaining ECB and FED interest rate correlation: Economic interdependence and optimal monetary policy," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201025, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    8. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
    9. Christian Dreger & Malte Rieth & David Pothier, 2015. "Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 106, number pbk106, Enero-Abr.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Florian Verheyen, 2014. "The Low-Interest-Rate Environment, Global Liquidity Spillovers and Challenges for Monetary Policy Ahead," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(2), pages 313-334, June.
    11. Nikolaou, Kleopatra & Modugno, Michele, 2009. "The forecasting power of internal yield curve linkages," Working Paper Series 1044, European Central Bank.
    12. Ansgar Belke, 2017. "Central Bank Communication: Managing Expectations through the Monetary Dialogue," ROME Working Papers 201704, ROME Network.
    13. Metin Tetik & Görkem Kara, 2020. "FED ve TCMB Politika Kararları Arasındaki Stratejik Etkileşimin Testi: Toda-Yamamoto Yaklaşımı," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(32), pages 35-47, June.
    14. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek & Stracca, Livio & Strasser, Georg, 2020. "Monetary policy and its transmission in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 2407, European Central Bank.
    15. Teti̇k, Metin, 2020. "Testing of leader-follower interaction between fed and emerging countries’ central banks," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    16. Belke, Ansgar H. & Gros, Daniel, 2007. "Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy, House Prices and Labor Market Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 2547, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Belke, Ansgar & Beckmann, Joscha & Dreger, Christian, 2014. "Does the foreign interest rate matter for monetary policy? Evidence from nonlinear Taylor rules," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100450, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Cleomar Gomes da silva & Flavio V. Vieira, 2016. "Monetary policy decision making: the role of ideology, institutions and central bank independence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2051-2062.
    19. repec:zbw:rwirep:0477 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Jung, Alexander & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and the health of banks," Working Paper Series 2303, European Central Bank.
    21. Çelik, Sadullah & Deniz, Pınar, 2009. "Does Fed Funds Target Interest Rate Lead Bank of England’s Bank Rate and European Central Bank’s Key Interest Rate?," MPRA Paper 14750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2020. "The run-up to the global financial crisis: A longer historical view of financial liberalization, capital inflows, and asset bubbles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    23. Mariam Camarero & Javier Ordóñez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2009. "External Macroeconomic Factors and the Link between Short‐ and Long‐Run European Interest Rates: A Note," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(4), pages 1212-1219, April.
    24. Ansgar Belke, 2014. "Monetary Dialogue 2009-2014 – Looking Backward, Looking Forward," Ruhr Economic Papers 0477, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Justin Doran & Bernard Fingleton, 2014. "Economic shocks and growth: Spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93, pages 137-165, November.
    2. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    3. Arturas Juodis, 2013. "Cointegration Testing in Panel VAR Models Under Partial Identification and Spatial Dependence," UvA-Econometrics Working Papers 13-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Dept. of Econometrics.
    4. Lisbeth Funding la Cour, 1995. "A Component® based Analysis of the danish Long-run Money Demand Relation," Discussion Papers 95-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    5. Camille Logeay & Sven Schreiber, 2006. "Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(17), pages 2053-2068.
    6. K. Aleks Schaefer & Daniel Scheitrum, 2020. "Sewing terror: price dynamics of the strawberry needle crisis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(2), pages 229-243, April.
    7. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2017. "Symmetry, proportionality and productivity bias hypothesis: evidence from panel-VAR models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 79-93, February.
    8. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Eleanya K. Nduka & Ugochukwu E. Anigbogu & Ishaku R. Nyiputen, 2016. "Investigating the Causal Relationship Between Stock Market and Aggregate Economic Performance of South Africa," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(4), pages 218-227, April.
    10. Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "Practical Problems with Reduced‐rank ML Estimators for Cointegration Parameters and a Simple Alternative," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 673-690, October.
    11. Philipp Gersing & Leopold Soegner & Manfred Deistler, 2022. "Retrieval from Mixed Sampling Frequency: Generic Identifiability in the Unit Root VAR," Papers 2204.05952, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    12. Duca, John V. & Ling, David C., 2020. "The other (commercial) real estate boom and bust: The effects of risk premia and regulatory capital arbitrage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    13. Kilponen, Juha & Kinnunen, Helvi & Ripatti, Antti, 2006. "Population ageing in a small open economy: some policy experiments with a tractable general equilibrium model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/2006, Bank of Finland.
    14. Mustapha Ibn Boamah, 2017. "Common Stocks and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis of G7 and BRICS," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(2), pages 213-224, June.
    15. Chebbi, Houssem Eddine & Lachaal, Lassaad, 2007. "Agricultural Sector and Economic Growth in Tunisia: Evidence from Co-integration and Error Correction Mechanism," 103rd Seminar, April 23-25, 2007, Barcelona, Spain 9416, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Alessia Naccarato & Andrea Pierini & Giovanna Ferraro, 2021. "Markowitz portfolio optimization through pairs trading cointegrated strategy in long-term investment," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 81-99, April.
    17. K A El-Wassal, 2005. "Stock Market Growth: An analysis of cointegration and causality," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 10(1), pages 37-58, March.
    18. Darrian Collins & Clem Tisdell, 2004. "Outbound Business Travel Depends on Business Returns: Australian Evidence," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 192-207, June.
    19. Christian Schoder, 2012. "Effective demand, exogenous normal utilization and endogenous capacity in the long run. Evidence from a CVAR analysis for the US," IMK Working Paper 103-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    20. Muhammad Shahbaz & Vassilios G. Papavassiliou & Amine Lahiani & David Roubaud, 2023. "Are we moving towards decarbonisation of the global economy? Lessons from the distant past to the present," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2620-2634, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:43:y:2005:i:5:p:921-946. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-9886 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.