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Are Gold and Government Bond Safe‐Haven Assets? An Extremal Quantile Regression Analysis

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  • Wei‐han Liu

Abstract

This study reexamines gold and government bonds as potential safe‐haven assets (SHAs) during market turmoil from daily data in 16 international markets over the past 20 years. We apply the extremal quantile regression model by Chernozhukov and Chernozhukov and Fernandez‐Val for empirical investigation. The outcomes indicate that a government bond is more likely to be qualified an active SHA, which can increase in value during market turmoil. Gold can be generally evaluated as a passive SHA, which is uncorrelated with market slumps. However, at the extremal 0.001 quantile level, neither asset can be qualified as a SHA. Since both assets exhibit a similar number of cases of being qualified as SHAs, we cannot significantly differentiate the “flight‐to‐liquidity” and “flight‐to‐quality” hypotheses. In terms of market selection, United States and Singapore are the top two choices while France and Hungary are the least commended markets to invest their local gold market as SHA.

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  • Wei‐han Liu, 2020. "Are Gold and Government Bond Safe‐Haven Assets? An Extremal Quantile Regression Analysis," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 451-483, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:20:y:2020:i:2:p:451-483
    DOI: 10.1111/irfi.12232
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    2. Meng-Shiuh Chang & Meng-Wei Chen & Peijie Ju, 2023. "Asymmetry in Hedges, Safe Havens, Flights and Contagion: Unconditional Quantile Regression Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, November.
    3. Yun‐Huan Lee & Tzu‐Hsiang Liao & Hsiu‐Chuan Lee, 2022. "Overnight returns of industry exchange‐traded funds, investor sentiment, and futures market returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1114-1134, June.
    4. Ghulam Mujtaba & Asima Siddique & Nader Naifar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2024. "Hedge and safe haven role of commodities for the US and Chinese equity markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2381-2414, April.
    5. Hassan, M. Kabir & Djajadikerta, Hadrian Geri & Choudhury, Tonmoy & Kamran, Muhammad, 2022. "Safe havens in Islamic financial markets: COVID-19 versus GFC," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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